Every Time I Thought It Was the Top, I Was Wrong
(Cue the standard disclaimer: I’m not a CPA or an attorney, I’m a real estate broker. None of this is financial or legal advice—it’s for informational and illustrative purposes only. If you have questions in those areas, talk to the right professional.)
(I also don’t know the future. So even if I think I’m right, or even if you think I’m right, no guarantees)
(Got it? OK.)
When I first started in this business, we were just coming out of the S&L crisis. Deregulation had fueled a bubble in land prices, it burst, and many financial institutions failed.
Lots of people went to jail. They are all out now, some of them are back in the land business. Based on my dealings with some of them, they didn’t all magically become honest in prison.
The government stepped in to sell off all the foreclosed real estate. At first, buyers were gun-shy. But the ones who moved fast picked up incredible deals—they just had to hold while things normalized.
Before long, values came roaring back. That’s when the doubts started. Many believed the upside was gone and that prices would turn south.
Sound familiar?
I remember a quarterly newsletter from an investment firm at the time. Investors were nervous. So the headline was simple and bold:
A Boom That Won’t Go Away.
The point was clear: what people thought was the ceiling was really the new floor. Population growth meant values had room to keep climbing.
He was right. In the 25 years since, every deal I thought was overpriced turned out cheap in hindsight. My only mistake was doing too much due diligence.
We’re in a similar spot today. Values have risen for so long that people wonder if there’s any toothpaste left in the tube. Nobody can predict the future—but the DFW area is still projected to add millions of people over the next 10–15 years.
Some even say it could be the biggest metro in the U.S. by 2100.
I’ll be about 130 then, can’t wait to see if they are right!
Does any of this guarantee anything? No.
But as they say in the stock market, the trend is your friend. And until the trend changes, the party (probably) isn’t over.
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