Mike Browning

Tag: Real Estate Cycles

  • Still No End In Sight?

    Still No End In Sight?

    Every Time I Thought It Was the Top, I Was Wrong

    (Cue the standard disclaimer: I’m not a CPA or an attorney, I’m a real estate broker. None of this is financial or legal advice—it’s for informational and illustrative purposes only. If you have questions in those areas, talk to the right professional.)

    (I also don’t know the future. So even if I think I’m right, or even if you think I’m right, no guarantees)

    (Got it? OK.)

    When I first started in this business, we were just coming out of the S&L crisis. Deregulation had fueled a bubble in land prices, it burst, and many financial institutions failed.

    Lots of people went to jail. They are all out now, some of them are back in the land business. Based on my dealings with some of them, they didn’t all magically become honest in prison.

    The government stepped in to sell off all the foreclosed real estate. At first, buyers were gun-shy. But the ones who moved fast picked up incredible deals—they just had to hold while things normalized.

    Before long, values came roaring back. That’s when the doubts started. Many believed the upside was gone and that prices would turn south.

    Sound familiar?

    I remember a quarterly newsletter from an investment firm at the time. Investors were nervous. So the headline was simple and bold:

    A Boom That Won’t Go Away.

    The point was clear: what people thought was the ceiling was really the new floor. Population growth meant values had room to keep climbing.

    He was right. In the 25 years since, every deal I thought was overpriced turned out cheap in hindsight. My only mistake was doing too much due diligence.

    We’re in a similar spot today. Values have risen for so long that people wonder if there’s any toothpaste left in the tube. Nobody can predict the future—but the DFW area is still projected to add millions of people over the next 10–15 years.

    Some even say it could be the biggest metro in the U.S. by 2100.

    I’ll be about 130 then, can’t wait to see if they are right!

    Does any of this guarantee anything? No.

    But as they say in the stock market, the trend is your friend. And until the trend changes, the party (probably) isn’t over.

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  • Real Estate Market Extremism

    Real Estate Market Extremism

    The Housing Market’s Moody Cousin

    I try not to pay too much attention to the news. It’ll drive you nuts. And let’s be honest, the point isn’t to inform you—it’s to keep you watching. (More on that some other time, probably with a bourbon in hand.)

    That said, real estate is my job, so I have to keep tabs on that part of the circus. But even there, most of what gets talked about boils down to whether the housing market is “hot” or “cold.” It’s the same game: grab your attention and keep you scrolling. Everyone either owns a home or wants to, so they know that’ll get clicks.

    But when you start talking about custom home lots, the rules shift. The regular home market and the lot market are connected, sure—but not twins. More like cousins who only get along half the time. In fact, the lot market tends to be even more extreme.

    Everyone needs a place to live. Job transfers, family moves, divorces, new babies, empty nests, whatever—it keeps the regular housing market in motion, even when it’s slow.

    But nobody needs a 4-bed, 4-bath custom masterpiece on 1.5 acres. That’s a “want,” not a “must.” And when money’s tight or rates are high, “wants” get put on hold.

    Here’s how that plays out:

    When the housing market is hot—prices rising, equity growing, interest rates low—building a dream house feels doable. People see their current home value going up and start dreaming bigger. The lot market? It goes nuts. I’ve seen times where I’d run the comps, take an already-aggressive number, tack on $50–75K, and bam—sold. Immediately.

    But when things cool off?

    The same buyers say, “Maybe we’ll just wait a bit.” And they do. If they’re not building soon, why buy a lot now? So they don’t. And the market for lots doesn’t just slow down—it basically vanishes.

    That’s the thing with lots: it’s not a gradual shift. If your lot is worth $200K in a hot market, it’s not going for $195K in a soft one. It might not go at all. You either ride it out or sell at a steep discount—and no one likes a steep discount.

    So while the housing market moves in degrees—warm, chilly, cold—the lot market goes from “on fire” to “ghost town” in a snap.

    What’s the takeaway?

    If you’re thinking about selling and the market is good, go. Don’t wait. These windows don’t stay open long. If the market’s soft, sit tight until it turns. You’re not missing a few grand—you’re missing all the buyers.

    Not sure where things stand? Just ask. I’ll give you the truth, whether it’s “now’s the time” or “hold off and I’ll keep you posted.”

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
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