Understand What to Expect With Your Land

It’s frustrating, but there’s an upside to dealing with the lazy and/or incompetent.

I’ve recently adjusted my approach on the Buyer’s Short List service. It seems like it’s an improvement, although maybe it’s too soon to tell.

The problem with just screening on price is that if something is truly a screaming deal and it gets advertised, it’s not going to be around long. So what comes back in the price screen is generally the sort of thing that’s priced low because you don’t want to own it.

Not always, but mostly.

The real opportunity may be in properties that aren’t advertised at bargain prices, but where the seller might be willing to accept considerably less than asking. For whatever reason.

Those aren’t going to show up in a screen looking for low prices. You have to do some digging.

Which kind of puts us all back where we were before. We all know that 99% of what we see on the market doesn’t fit our needs for one reason or another. But it’s hard to find the needle in the haystack.

I think I’ve found another way to burn the haystack and leave just the needles.

It doesn’t come without frustration. You’d be surprised how many agents seem to think putting something in MLS is most of the job.

I flag something worth checking on and reach out. Ask if there’s a flyer available. Or pictures, or aerials, or anything.

A surprisingly high percentage of the time the answer to all that is no. Followed by some form of “so is your client going to make an offer or what?”

There’s nothing wrong with introducing minimal friction into the process. On my own listings, I generally make it so you have to email or call to get anything above the basics. Because if you don’t create that contact, you’re not capturing info, getting feedback, etc. All of which helps down the line.

But there’s a difference between strategically requiring minimal effort and not doing all you can to facilitate selling the property. I mean, if I can put together more info in 20 minutes than your agent has when I reach out, what good are they to you?

Anyway, enough complaining. I have (other people’s) research to do.

And that’s really the point. Somebody has to do it. Most investors don’t have the time or inclination to chase down information on dozens of properties just to find one that’s worth a closer look.

That’s what the Buyer’s Short List is for.

If you’re an investor and could benefit from someone filtering out the junk and locating opportunities others aren’t seeing, Buyer’s Short List is for you.

There’s currently no charge, you don’t have to be my client to be on the list, and you don’t have to buy anything.

Find out more here.

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This store doesn’t need your sympathy.

I’m not a social media guy, and I try to avoid the news for the most part. The major stories find their way to you anyway, but you’re not overwhelmed with negativity, engagement driven by causing anxiety, or any of that.

It’s good for your mental health, and I recommend it.

One thing that almost never finds its way to me is celebrity news, which is also a great benefit. But I did hear about the Kelly Clarkson spat with a store in Brooklyn.

Like anything, it depends on who is telling the story. But in case you’re somehow less informed than me, the short version (according to Clarkson) is that she went into a store called Art of Play and felt the staff assumed she couldn’t afford what she was looking at. They tried to steer her toward a cheaper item.

Kelly got mad, then took to X to blast the store.

According to a recent Dallas Morning News column by Dave Lieber (the self-styled “Watchdog”), her post had attracted more than 46 million views.

As you’d expect, the store disputes her version of events and says it was all a misunderstanding.

Lieber’s column is largely about how unfair it is that a celebrity can damage a small business’s reputation in a matter of minutes. And there’s something to that. The store reportedly received complaints and threats from people who weren’t there and don’t know what happened.

But is the publicity actually ruining the store’s business?

Let’s look at it from a marketing angle. A couple of questions.

If 46 million views are generated by someone badmouthing a store most people have never heard of, how many of those people are actually going to hold a grudge against the store? And if they were never potential customers to begin with, how much does it really hurt?

And how many are now aware of a store they didn’t know existed?

There’s a difference between getting a lot of negative attention and losing a lot of business.

The store doesn’t appear particularly interested in making the story go away. The owners have publicly pushed back against Clarkson’s account, keeping the controversy alive.

Aside from that, they raised the price of the item in question from $15K to $15M. Publicity stunt if I ever saw one.

Let’s do some back-of-the-envelope math and see why I suspect this may turn out pretty well for them.

For the sake of argument, let’s call it 46 million views. Some of those are undoubtedly repeat views, but that’s an enormous amount of attention regardless.

Suppose just 5 million of those views represent people who are close enough to visit the store, or might now make it a point to visit when they go to New York. (These are assumptions, not facts.)

Now say just 2% of those people have the money and interest to buy something from a specialty retailer like this.

That’s 100,000 potential customers.

What if only 2% of those people actually visit the store and buy something?

That’s 2,000 customers.

The store sells plenty of items that cost far less than the famous bird, so let’s not assume everyone is spending $15,000. But if the average purchase were $2,000, that’s:

2,000 customers × $2,000 = $4 million in revenue.

Again, I have no idea whether that’s what will happen. The percentages are guesses, and the average sale could be much lower. Cut the average sale to $200 and it’s still $400,000.

But that’s the point of the exercise. When you’re talking about tens of millions of views, you don’t need a very large percentage of people to become customers before the numbers start getting interesting.

Not bad for a store most of those people had never heard of a week earlier.

Of course, no store wants angry strangers calling, posting nasty comments, or making threats.

But the publicity has already happened. The question now is what the store does with it. And I think they’ve given us a pretty good indication.

At the end of his column, Lieber says the lesson is to treat every customer like a celebrity and never assume someone can’t afford what you’re selling.

Fair enough. Good advice.

But there’s another lesson here.

The store may have taken a beating online. It may also end up making a fortune from all the attention.

And if somebody actually pays $15 million for that bird, I may have to rethink my position on celebrity news.

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If you’re lucky.

The cartoon above is the front of a new postcard I’ve got going out to landowners in North Texas.

I think it describes the reason for the MBR Land Reality Check pretty well.

Most landowners aren’t looking to sell today. But that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t like to know what their property is worth and what’s happening in the market.

Unfortunately, a lot of the offers for a “free market analysis” seem to come with an expectation that you’re ready to sign a listing agreement.

That’s not what the Land Reality Check is about.

Since I can’t afford to mail a postcard to every landowner in North Texas, I figured I’d put it here too.

If you own land, it only makes sense to know where you stand, whether you’re considering selling or not. The MBR Land Reality Check gives you a detailed look at what your property might sell for today, along with the market information and comparable sales behind that conclusion.

It’s free. No obligation. And no pressure to list or sell.

Of course, everybody says there’s no pressure. You don’t have to take my word for it.

At the link below, you can read about other landowners’ experiences and see a sample of an actual Land Reality Check, without entering your name, email address, or anything else.

Take a look. If you agree it would be valuable to have one for your own property, you can request it right there.

See More Here.

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When things go well, we often exaggerate our role in things.

One of my daughters recently got her SAT scores back. Not going to go into too much detail, but suffice to say she got a fantastic score.

When I saw the results, I half jokingly told her mom we should congratulate ourselves on the great job we did to make it possible. I say half jokingly because if I’m being honest, part of me really did want to take more credit than I deserved to.

But the truth is it was 95% her (if not more).

Sure, I provided a stable environment for her to grow up. But when it comes to school, she requires zero supervision. I’m not even signed up for the online parent portal where I could monitor her grades, because there’s no need.

Or more accurately, I am signed up (because they made me) but I don’t know how to login because I haven’t in years.

She really has done it all herself.

The whole thing reminded me of something that happened several years ago. I was working on some deals that I needed to close, and we were hitting some snags. Since there was a problem, naturally I remembered pretty quickly to start praying.

The deals fell through. Like I was saying last week, we don’t always get what we ask for, at least not in the way we think we should.

But shortly after that, another deal came along that I wasn’t even looking for. A bigger one. And it turned out to be one of the rare ones where everything goes smoothly, quickly, and without trouble.

No problems at all.

As it was all happening, I started thinking, wow, I’ve really done a great job on this. I figured out who to call, when to call them, what to say, how to approach things, etc.

Then I caught myself.

When things were going badly, I wanted to lean on God and ask for His help. Then they turned around (spectacularly), and all of a sudden it was all because of me.

I guess at least I caught myself that time. I’m sure there were other times that I just congratulated myself and forgot about it, at least until the next struggle.

There’s nothing wrong with enjoying it when things go your way. Or taking some satisfaction in a job well done.

But there’s a difference between being grateful you had a part in something good and convincing yourself you made the whole thing happen.

Especially when you were asking God for help just a few days earlier.

P.S. One way to remember who deserves the credit is to spend more time in His Word.

I run another site called HisWordTogether.com that helps you stay on track reading through the Bible once a year. Every year.

No commentary. No telling you what to think. Nothing to buy. Nothing fancy.

Just steady time in the Word.

Check it out here.

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Although maybe now it should be Short Lists.

About once a week I’ll write something here about the Buyer’s Short List. It’s a service we have for land investors that helps filter out the junk. So you don’t miss a deal because you were busy looking at something that didn’t make sense from the get-go.

The Short List looks at land listings across 21 North Texas counties and identifies properties that appear attractively priced compared to what’s recently sold nearby.

And just to be clear, “nearby” doesn’t mean somewhere else in the same county. Land values can change considerably in just a few miles. We look at sales that are actually relevant to the property we’re evaluating.

Also to be clear, we don’t just look at the price and stop there. Most things that are priced low are like that for a reason that’s usually easy to see. Floodplain, bad frontage, easements, etc.

We check for those things. Some properties pass that basic check. It’s not a guaranteed deal yet, just worth looking at more closely. We can help with that too, we just don’t do it all on the front end.

Our time is valuable too, you know.

Anyway, when a property passes the initial check, people on the Short List get an email. No schedule, no spam. They won’t all be a fit for you, but so far I haven’t had anyone quit the list once they got on. I take that as a good sign.

Speaking of value, people on the Short List are about to start getting more.

Until now, we’ve mainly been looking for properties that appear underpriced based on recent sales. But sometimes the deal isn’t in the asking price. It’s in what the seller might be willing to take.

So we’re expanding the search to include properties where there are indications the seller may be particularly motivated. And properties that have been sitting on the market long enough that the seller might be more willing to negotiate.

These won’t necessarily look like bargains at their current asking prices. That’s part of the point.

But they’ll still go through the same basic screening as the original Short List. We don’t do all your due diligence up front, but we do enough to weed out the obvious junk and save you time.

It’s still free for now. I may eventually figure out a way to charge for it, but I haven’t worked that out yet.

In the meantime, if having somebody screen the market for you and point out properties worth a closer look sounds useful, you can get on the list.

Find out more here.

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And still right in the middle of things.

Sometimes a property comes back on the market, and there’s a good reason nobody bought it the first time.

Other times, the right buyer just hasn’t come along yet.

We’ve got approximately 25 acres in Collin County, near Josephine, that are back on the market. And I think they’re worth another look.

The property is on Hubbard Road, near the proposed Outer Loop. That’s not some distant corner of North Texas where you’re hoping growth might eventually show up. Growth is already happening all around it.

The tract has about 425 feet of road frontage, utilities nearby, and generally flat to rolling terrain with no mapped floodplain.

The interesting part is what might happen around it.

The current future land-use plan shows residential. That certainly makes sense given what’s happening in the area. But the proposed Outer Loop could change the picture considerably.

Depending on where the final alignment ends up, what access is available, and what the city will approve, there could be opportunities for other uses. Commercial, multifamily, maybe something nobody has thought of yet.

Or it might remain a residential development opportunity.

That’s the thing about buying land in an area that’s changing quickly. You have to look at what it is today, what it might become, and what has to happen between those two things.

And you have to be careful not to pay today for something that might never happen.

The Outer Loop alignment isn’t finalized. It could shift several hundred feet, and being near a major highway doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have access to it. Those are things a buyer needs to investigate before getting too excited.

But the growth around Josephine isn’t hypothetical. It’s already underway.

You don’t have to go all the way to Oklahoma to find land with some interesting possibilities.

Sometimes it’s right in the middle of what’s happening.

If you’re interested in this ±25-acre tract near Josephine, email me for more information.

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All information is believed accurate but is not guaranteed. Buyers should independently verify property details, utilities, floodplain status, proposed road alignments, access, permitted uses, and development feasibility.

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And does it really matter?

From about 2019–2022 was about as strong of a seller’s market for lots and land that I can remember.

During that period there was great activity in both investment acreage and land for development. Also acreage homesites, where people were wanting to build their dream homes outside of the city. I have a lot (pun sort of intended) of experience valuing lots, but even I was having a hard time with it.

I almost couldn’t price it high enough.

It got to where I would do my analysis, come up with what the comps “should” represent, then arbitrarily tack 20–30% onto it. Basically just add $50K to what the numbers said. And most of the time it would sell almost immediately.

It was great, until it stopped. Quickly. Things are still happening, but much slower. And values have basically been moving sideways. Lot sales are the easiest place to see it. When a lot that sold in 2021 or 2022 retrades today, the price is generally about the same.

The phone was still ringing, just nowhere near as fast.

That seems to be changing some. Activity on my listings has picked up in the last month or so. Of course, when it’s slow, getting any calls seems like an increase. And it may just be a coincidence.

At any rate, if you’ve been wanting to sell but haven’t liked what the market was offering, you might have a better opportunity coming.

Or if you haven’t been looking to sell, you might start getting inquiries soon from people other than the lowball artists you see all the time.

Or maybe it won’t turn and we will all be waiting a little longer.

The truth is, I don’t know whether we’re seeing the beginning of a stronger market or just a few more people kicking tires.

But you don’t need to predict the market to benefit from knowing where you stand.

Whether you’re motivated or not, it’s always a good time to figure out what you have and where you stand. Things can change fast, both in regard to the market and to someone’s personal situation. It’s better to have current information and not need it, than to realize you needed it yesterday and are now scrambling.

That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It gives you a clear-eyed view of what your property might sell for today, along with what’s going on nearby that might be relevant.

Valuable information no matter what your current plans are.

Did I mention it’s free? No obligation? And best of all, no pressure?

I know everybody says that. So don’t take my word for it.

At the link below you can see a sample Land Reality Check, no email required, along with what other landowners have said about their experience.

Take a look. If you think it would be useful to have one for your own property, you can request it right there.

See More Here.

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Just because God can do anything doesn’t mean He would. Or should.

If you follow pro football at all, I’m sure you remember the Tim Tebow phenomenon from 10–15 years ago. Actually, even if you’re not a big NFL fan you probably remember it. It was a big cultural thing.

Tebow was an outspoken Christian, and a great college quarterback. He got drafted in the first round, but there were serious questions about whether his throwing mechanics and style of play would translate to the NFL.

Even so, he ended up finding his way into a starting role. And he started winning, and took Denver to their first division championship and playoff win in several years.

Then it was over about as quick as it started. Tebow got traded, lasted a year as a backup, tried pro baseball, attempted an NFL comeback as a tight end, none of which worked.

But while it lasted it was interesting to say the least. Many people were convinced that God was allowing Tebow to win to show the world what faith could do.

And maybe He was. He certainly could affect the outcome of a football game if He wanted to. But personally I doubt it. Or if He was, the reasoning probably wasn’t as clean as we’d like.

Aside from Tebow, there were presumably some men of God on the other teams. Bad guys on both sides too. Not to mention the fact that how much does it really matter who wins a football game?

The Bible tells us to come to God in prayer with our needs. Jesus even tells us that whatever we ask for in prayer, believing, we will receive.

But we’ve all prayed for things that didn’t happen. Does that mean we didn’t have enough faith? Or is there something more going on?

I think there’s something more going on.

Explaining God to a person has been likened to explaining the internet to an ant. Even if you can grasp it partially, you’ll never really understand well enough to see how it all fits together.

So yes, we are supposed to ask for what we think we need. But when we don’t get it, that doesn’t mean God didn’t listen. We can trust that God knows what He’s doing, even when we can’t see how it fits together. And even when the outcome isn’t the one we wanted.

I’ll leave the details out to protect others, but personally I had some things going on awhile back that I wasn’t sure how to deal with. And didn’t really know how to explain.

But I reached out to a friend and associate of mine who is a Christian, and he reminded me. God knows better than we do what is needed, even when we don’t know exactly what to ask.

So we prayed.

It’s been years, and it still hasn’t worked out in the way I’d like to see. But I trust that God knows what needs to happen, even if it’s not what I would choose.

And that’s what I need to remember.

What if we ask for something that doesn’t fit God’s plan?

We can look to the example of Jesus. In Gethsemane, He asked for the cup to pass from Him. But He also said, “Not as I will, but as You will.”

The Father heard Him. But the cup wasn’t taken away.

Lucky for us.

P.S. We may never fully understand God’s plans, but the more time we spend in His Word, the better we can understand what He’s told us.

I run another site called HisWordTogether.com that helps you stay on track reading through the Bible once a year. Every year.

No commentary. No telling you what to think. Nothing to buy. Nothing fancy.

Just steady time in the Word.

Check It Out Here

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And be ready when it comes.

I don’t follow quite as closely when the Rangers aren’t involved, but I enjoy watching postseason baseball. The games get managed a little differently than they do in the regular season, and every play is significant. Every at bat seems a little more important.

But if the batter goes up there trying to hit a home run, he’s in trouble. Most likely the pitcher will pick up on it and take advantage. The batter has to act like it’s just a normal game, and wait until he gets a pitch he can handle. Then when he does (assuming it happens), his focus has to be putting a good swing on the ball. Not trying to hit it over the fence.

Manage the process correctly, and the results will be better over time. You can’t guarantee the outcome of any one at bat, but you can improve your odds over a season.

Sometimes they can’t help themselves. In Reggie Jackson’s iconic three-home-run World Series game, he reportedly admitted to trying to hit a home run on the last one. It happened, but even he knew that wasn’t the smartest approach.

In rural land investing, the swing part is usually the easy one. Once you’ve found something genuinely undervalued in an area with good prospects, done your diligence, and decided to buy it, the easy part is usually waiting for time to do its work.

Finding the good pitch is the hard part. In a baseball game, it’s unlikely a batter will go through a game without seeing at least one good pitch to hit. In real estate, you might be lucky to see one screaming deal in a year.

And when it does show up, it doesn’t stay available long. Most of the time, you miss the big opportunity because it came and went while you were looking at stuff that wasn’t really a deal.

The problem isn’t knowing what to do when a good pitch comes along. It’s being in position to recognize one before it’s gone.

That’s what the Buyer’s Short List is for.

The Buyer’s Short List looks at land listings across 21 North Texas counties and flags properties that appear attractively priced. Most of the time, there’s a reason for the low price (floodplain, no road frontage, etc.), so I manually check what the screen flags and rule those out.

Every so often, one passes that second bar. That doesn’t mean it’s a deal. There’s more diligence to be done. But it’s something worth looking at more closely.

If you’re on the Short List, you get notified about these properties as they come up. No schedule, no spam.

It doesn’t cost anything today. If it helps you find one deal a year, how much is that worth?

Find out more here.

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Especially after they know the outcome.

A couple of weeks ago, in the Cowboys game against Baltimore, Dallas kicked a field goal to tie the game with seven seconds left.

On the ensuing kickoff, they kicked the ball out of the end zone, giving Baltimore the ball at the 35 with seven seconds remaining.

Baltimore executed perfectly. Completed a long pass, called a timeout with one second left, and kicked the winning field goal on the last play. Predictably, the media took Dallas to task for kicking the ball out of the end zone instead of forcing Baltimore to return it.

And they may have been right. Maybe the risk of a long return was worth taking in exchange for running a few seconds off the clock. That might have given Dallas a better chance of getting to overtime.

But it was pretty obvious that much of the criticism came with the benefit of hindsight. And, of course, badmouthing the Cowboys is a pretty reliable way to get clicks.

I remember thinking that if Dallas had done the opposite and given up a long return, they’d have been torched for that decision too.

Turns out I didn’t have to wait long to find out.

Yesterday, Philadelphia kicked a field goal to take the lead against Jacksonville with eight seconds left. They kicked off, Jacksonville returned the ball into field goal range, and the returner was tackled with one second remaining.

Jacksonville kicked the winning field goal.

And wouldn’t you know it, now the criticism was that Philadelphia should have kicked the ball out of the end zone instead of allowing a return.

Interesting how that works.

Now, it’s possible both teams made the wrong decision. But the fact that a decision turned out badly doesn’t necessarily mean it was a bad decision when it was made. And a good outcome doesn’t necessarily mean somebody made a smart decision either.

It’s something worth remembering anytime somebody is telling you what you should have done, or what you should do next.

A lot of the time, their real motivation is to make themselves look smart. They already know how things turned out, so they can tell you exactly what you should have done differently.

Of course, it’s even more important when the person giving you advice has a financial interest in what you decide.

Take a real estate broker, for example. Brokers get paid when transactions happen. So there’s a pretty obvious incentive to steer people toward buying or selling, whether that’s actually the best decision for them or not.

What you need is somebody willing to tell you what they think the best course of action is, even when it’s not in their own interest.

Somebody who plays the long game.

Guess what? I know somebody.