Mike Browning

Tag: Lot Sales

  • Slow…Then Fast! (Then Slow)

    Slow…Then Fast! (Then Slow)

    When the market isn’t supercharged, timing matters even more

    Short one today.

    Before I get started, quick reminder: I’m not a CPA, attorney, or mortgage pro. I’m a real estate broker. This isn’t financial or legal advice — if you need that, talk to someone licensed in those areas.

    Now, let’s get into it.

    Everyone knows higher rates have cooled the housing market — but let’s be clear: what we have now is closer to “normal” than the supercharged chaos we had before.

    Don’t let agents who started five years ago convince you otherwise. They’ve only ever known the sugar-high years and think today’s market “sucks.” It doesn’t.

    Not really. It’s just different — it takes work now.

    Where you really feel it, though, is custom home lots.

    Unlike a starter home, nobody needs a 2-acre tract for a dream house. It’s a want-to-have, not a have-to-have. And if you’re borrowing $500K to build, a 1% rate bump adds hundreds a month — that slows buyers down fast.

    The Fed meets next week, and there’s a decent chance they cut rates. Here’s what usually happens when they do:

    • There’s a burst of activity right after the cut. Buyers who’ve been waiting jump fast.
    • Then, just as quickly, things settle back down until the next cut.

    If you’re selling, this window matters.

    If you’re buying, positioning yourself now matters even more — because when rates drop, the best lots go first.

    I’m already getting calls from custom builders looking for lots. Does that guarantee anything? No. But it’s a good sign.

    Nobody knows exactly what’s coming.

    But when things move, they move fast — and being prepared is the only way to take advantage.

    There’s never really a bad time to know where the market stands. Even if you’re not planning to sell, it never hurts to stay up to date and establish a relationship with someone who lives in this market every day.

    You know I don’t deal in pressure — and I don’t want to work with anyone who doesn’t actively want to work with me.

    But with the Fed meeting about a week away, if there’s ever a time to pound the table, this is it.

    Click below to make sure you’re prepared.

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  • Life Isn’t Blackjack — It’s Poker (Sort Of)

    Life Isn’t Blackjack — It’s Poker (Sort Of)

    Even if you knew all the rules, they’d still change. Do your best.

    It doesn’t happen every time, but when people get a valuation from me, it’s pretty common for them to ask something like:

    “What do you think it’ll be worth in two years?”

    The short version of my answer is always the same: “I don’t know.”

    If I did know what was going to happen in the future, I’d probably be doing something else.

    Most people want decision-making to feel like blackjack. You get your cards, the dealer flips theirs, and you can run the numbers to figure out the “right” play. The uncertainty is contained — there are only so many cards in the deck, and if you know the odds, you can act with confidence. You might still lose, but at least you made the correct move.

    (The real correct move is “don’t play blackjack in a casino,” but that’s beside the point.)

    That’s how most of us treat life. We think if we just gather enough information, we can make the perfect decision. Buy here. Sell there. Wait until rates drop. List when the market “stabilizes.” As if God handed us a rulebook and said, “Play this right and you’ll always win.”

    (Actually, He kind of did — but it doesn’t apply to the short term as much as far as winning.)

    But life isn’t blackjack. It’s poker.

    And poker’s a whole different animal. You don’t know what anyone else is holding. The “optimal play” depends on information you can’t have — what cards are left, what other players are holding, how likely they are to bluff, and what they’ll do if you push hard.

    And unlike blackjack, poker isn’t you against the house. Other people have agency. They adapt based on what you do, and what they think you’ll do. The “right” move isn’t fixed. It shifts based on incomplete information and moving targets.

    Even worse, it’s really like playing poker without knowing all the rules. You’re pretty sure a flush beats a straight, but then there’s some weird side pot you didn’t even know existed, and the guy next to you just announced you’re all playing Omaha now.

    That’s real estate. That’s business. That’s life.

    You never know all the variables. You never get all the cards face-up. You think you know your odds, but you don’t control the other players. You don’t control the Fed. You don’t control whether a better buyer shows up next week or if a road expansion gets funded next year.

    Yes, we can say values have risen in the past, so they probably will in the future. And we’ll probably be right. But not always. It’s not linear. After the S&L crisis, there were properties that sold for less than the commission paid on the prior sale. They’re worth more now, but timing is everything — and you can’t know the timing.

    And yet, most people want to make decisions like they’re sitting at a blackjack table with perfect information. They freeze until they “know what’s going to happen” — which usually means they freeze forever.

    The best decision-makers don’t waste time pretending they can eliminate uncertainty. They accept it. They move forward knowing they’ll never have perfect information, and they focus on managing risk instead of avoiding it.

    We’re all making decisions under uncertainty all the time — we just forget until the stakes feel high. You can’t wait until the whole picture is clear. It won’t be. The job isn’t to know the future. It’s to make the smartest move you can with the cards you’ve got, knowing you’ll never see them all.

    Because the truth is, you’re playing poker. You just keep acting like it’s blackjack.

    And when I say you can’t wait to know everything, I’m not telling you to “sell now.” What I’m saying is this: once you think it might be time, and the best info you have says you’re right, don’t freeze up. That’s when it’s time to go.

    Getting the right info starts with knowing what the current market looks like. It doesn’t cost anything, and it can only help.

    Is it ever a bad time to start that process of knowing what you can?

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  • Maybe They Are Trying to Deceive Me

    Maybe They Are Trying to Deceive Me

    Wouldn’t be the first time — but you just can’t beat Jesus Christ.

    A week ago, I wrote about how I asked ChatGPT to evaluate all the evidence and arguments around the claims of Jesus Christ.

    And it said He is exactly who He says He is.

    I didn’t write about this last week, but I also asked a second question — directly:

    “Is Jesus Christ the Savior of the world?”

    Here’s what it answered:

    “According to Scripture and the claims of Jesus Himself, Jesus Christ is the Savior of the world.”

    Then it listed passages:

    • “For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.” — John 3:16
    • “For the Son of Man came to seek and to save the lost.” — Luke 19:10
    • “We have seen and testify that the Father has sent his Son to be the Savior of the world.” — 1 John 4:14

    Then it summed it up perfectly:

    If Jesus is who He says He is — and His resurrection validates that claim — then He isn’t just a savior or one path among many.

    He is the Savior.

    Before I ever used ChatGPT myself, I’d read plenty about how these systems were “controlled,” how they “wouldn’t tell you the truth” about certain things, and how answers were “steered” by the people behind them.

    And honestly, I still believe some of that.

    Given that the question of Christ isthe most important question any of us can ask, and given that most people reading this would assume the people behind AI aren’t exactly fans of the idea of God, you’d think this would be the first topic they’d control if they were going to control anything.

    So, yes — I was surprised by the answer I got.

    Now, a lot of people will tell you this:

    “Sure, it answers that way today, but one day it won’t. That’s the plan.”

    They’ll say AI was created by people who want to control and deceive.

    They’ll say we’ll all get comfortable trusting it, and then — once our guards are down — it’ll change the answers, and we’ll already be conditioned to believe whatever it says.

    And maybe that’s true.

    Hell, it probably is true.

    But here’s the thing:

    It doesn’t matter.

    Jesus Christ does not change.

    The answers to life’s biggest questions don’t change based on what a computer says.

    People have wanted to know the truth about Him since creation.

    The question isn’t going away.

    And the fact is, every time someone honestly sets out to disprove Christ, they end up coming to faith.

    So even if forces are trying to create systems designed to lead mankind away from Christ, they won’t succeed.

    If you remember, men already tried that about 2,000 years ago.

    They schemed, they lied, and yes — they succeeded in crucifying Him.

    But without knowing it, they gave us the greatest victory in history.

    And that’s what will happen again.

    There’s no need to despair.

    The game is already won.

    The only question left is this:

    Which side are you on?

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  • Decide First, Justify Later

    Decide First, Justify Later

    It’s Not Just Others Who Are Irrational

    In my post yesterday, I talked about how people aren’t rational (but think they are) — and how we need to account for that when negotiating.

    But it’s not just other people — it’s all of us.

    Every decision you make is driven by emotion first, then reason. We decide, then justify. It happens so fast we don’t even notice.

    People aren’t rational beings. We’re rationalizing beings.

    We come up with reasons to do whatever we want to do anyway. Knowing all the “why nots” doesn’t stop us if we want it badly enough.

    Don’t believe me? Let’s talk about the big lotto jackpot tonight.

    You’ve seen the stories: lottery winners going broke, wrecking their relationships, spiraling into messes they couldn’t imagine before.

    Sudden wealth is not something most people are equipped to handle.Many (if not most) wealthy people made and lost fortunes before they figured out how to keep money instead of just make it.

    But the money isn’t even the biggest problem.

    The real wrecking ball hits your relationships. You suddenly have hundreds of millions, and people come out of the woodwork — friends, cousins, coworkers, that one guy you barely know. They’ll remind you how “fortunate” you are and how you “owe” it to share.

    It’s hard to say no without resentment growing on both sides. And if you think you’ll avoid that by finding a whole new circle, good luck — the new crowd is usually worse.

    At least your old group knew and liked you before you had money. With new people, you’ll always be suspicious of their motives.

    Friendships lost. Families fractured. Addiction rates jump.

    And you already know all this.

    But when the jackpot gets big, what’s the first thing you think?

    “I’d never have to worry about money again!”

    You’ll rationalize all the warnings away. “It’ll be different for me.”

    Disagree? Tell me after you buy your ticket.

    Or tell me when you see me buying mine.

    This doesn’t have much to do with real estate, I know.

    If you win, you probably won’t be selling much — you’ll be too busy hiding from cousins you didn’t know you had.

    If you’re on the other side and want to buy something, though, I know a guy.

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
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  • Don’t Argue About the Wrong Money

    Don’t Argue About the Wrong Money

    You lose if you make them feel like they lost

    People tend to be loss averse. Losing money hurts about twice as much as gaining the same amount feels good.

    If you lose $1,000 in the stock market, you’d need to make $2,000 back just to “feel even.”

    It sounds irrational, but it’s probably by design. If we treated gains and losses the same, we’d take way more risks — and a lot fewer of us would live long enough to regret them.

    Rational or not, it pays to understand loss aversion when buying or selling real estate.

    The more we think about this stuff beforehand, the better our chances of making smart decisions instead of letting our lizard brains run the show.

    One thing to remember: the idea of who pays what in transaction costs is mostly semantic.

    If you order a survey or an HOA certificate during escrow, someone’s on the hook for it even if the deal doesn’t close, so we want to be clear about that upfront. But if the deal does close, it doesn’t matter nearly as much.

    The buyer brings money to the table, costs get paid, and the seller walks away with what’s left. From a legal perspective, it matters whether the money comes off the top before it reaches the seller or after.

    From a bottom-line perspective? Same result.

    You can frame it however you want mentally.

    You can say the buyer pays everything because it’s their funds, or you can say the seller pays and picture it carved out of their pile before they walk out the door.

    Picture it so the other guy is paying if it makes you feel better.

    But remember this, the other side probably isn’t thinking this way. While you’re focused on the bottom line, they’re keeping score — and not in a rational way. Every transaction cost you try to push on them, they’ll subconsciously need to “get back” double somewhere else to feel okay about the deal. And if you try to stick them with a $2,000 expense, it typically bothers them more than if you just negotiated the price $2,000 higher.

    This is why those “land acquisition” outfits always brag about paying all closing costs in their letters. It removes one more source of resistance and makes their lowball offers easier to swallow.

    So what do we do?

    First, focus on your bottom line. Don’t get distracted by line items above it.

    Second, use this psychology to your advantage. Adjusting price usually carries the least resistance. If you’re selling, buyers expect you to counter higher anyway. If the bottom line’s too low, bump the price and let them “win” on some expenses instead.

    They’ll feel like they’re getting something, even if the math says otherwise.

    From a rational perspective, it’s all the same. But people aren’t rational.

    I know I’m giving away part of the playbook here — and that’s intentional. Most agents don’t understand these psychological levers, and if yours doesn’t, you’re the one leaving money on the table.

    And no, I didn’t tell you everything. To see the rest, you’ve got to see it in action — no extra charge for the negotiating knowledge.

    Just don’t skip the most important part: knowing your numbers ahead of time. That’s what puts you in control and tells you when to move.

    Is it a bad time to start finding out?

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
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  • Good Enough Gets Better Results Than Perfect

    Good Enough Gets Better Results Than Perfect

    If you’re trying to “get it right” before you start, you’re probably lying to yourself.

    I’ve written before about goal setting and success, and the basic formula is pretty simple:

    1. Decide what you want.
    2. Figure out what it’ll take to get there — or what it’ll cost.
    3. Do those things — or pay the cost.

    Then comes the step everyone forgets: check if what you did actually worked. If it did, great. If it didn’t, adjust and repeat. Every round should get you closer.

    Most people get stuck at step 2. I see it all the time. A client once told me they were “waiting until they figured everything out” before listing their land. A year later, prices dipped, interest rates spiked, and the window they thought they had disappeared.

    That’s the trap.

    If you’ve never done something before, you probably don’t know the “right” way to do it. You’ve got two choices:

    • Start now, learn as you go, and adjust along the way.
    • Or wait until you have every detail perfect before taking the first step.

    Guess which one succeeds faster? Right — the first one.

    Guess which one most people pick anyway? Also right — the second one.

    And we know it, but we can’t help ourselves. We decide we want everything lined up before we move.

    Not because failure is fatal, but because we don’t want anyone to see us fail.

    The irony? Nobody’s watching.

    Here’s the truth: perfectionism and procrastination are the same thing.

    Perfectionism just wears a tuxedo and pretends it’s working hard.

    We tell ourselves we’re “waiting until we figure it out,” but we’re really just putting off action. We make it sound smart. Responsible. Even strategic.

    But deep down, it’s fear in a tailored suit.

    Stop trying to perfect everything. Most of the time, “good enough” is exactly what gets results.

    Take land, for example. Maybe it’s not the right time for you to sell — or buy — today. That’s fine. But here’s the thing: how will you know when the timing is right if you’re not paying attention?

    It doesn’t have to be perfect to start. The first step is knowing where you stand right now.

    Is it ever the wrong time to have a quick conversation and get the facts from someone you trust?

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
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  • They Have Incentive to Undermine You

    They Have Incentive to Undermine You

    Just Getting It Done Probably Costs Your Agent Far Less Than It Costs You.

    One thing agents love to say when you hire them is that they “put your interests first.”

    And above theirs.

    Which is how it should be, of course.

    I say it too — the difference is, I actually mean it and put it into practice.

    Unfortunately, we can’t always say that about everyone else.

    But here’s the good news: we can use this to our advantage.

    If you understand what’s really driving many agents, you can often have the other side negotiating almost as hard for you as they are for their own client.

    Most agents aren’t lying when they say they’ll put you first — they mean it at the time. But reality has a way of changing priorities.

    The truth is, most agents don’t make anywhere near what they like to portray.

    Here’s what that means in practice:

    (Here’s where I say this isn’t financial or legal advice, I’m not an attorney or CPA, and all that. Talk to a professional in those fields before making any decisions)

    Say you list your property at a negotiated 6% commission, where the listing agent most likely would get 3%. If the price goes $20K higher, you net about $18.5K more. The agent? Around $600.

    And that’s ignoring any fees their broker takes. (I am the broker at my company, so I don’t always remember to factor that in.)

    So what do you think happens when there’s a “bird in the hand” offer on the table?

    Do they push for a few thousand more for you… or do they push to get it closed?

    It’s why you’ve probably experienced an agent swearing your home is worth no less than X when pitching you to get the listing — then turning around and urging you to accept less once it’s listed.

    Their goal is simple: get it closed.

    That’s human nature, even if ethics say otherwise.

    So what do you do?

    First, work with someone who actually does what they say. (Hello.)

    But just as important, work with someone who understands these incentives — and knows how to leverage them.

    When we’re selling your property, it can feel tempting to compromise just to “get it done.”

    But most of the time, if we hold tight, the agent on the other side will do the work for us — and sell their own client on making the deal.

    You benefit from that a lot more than I do — at least in the short run.

    Playing the long game means we both win.

    And speaking of the long game — does it ever hurt to have the latest info on what your property could sell for today?

    It puts you in the driver’s seat if someone comes along with an above-market unsolicited offer. Happens more often than you think.

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
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    Get Your Lot Valuation

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    (Commissions are always negotiable and examples are for illustrative purposes only.)

  • I Don’t Care How Busy You Are

    I Don’t Care How Busy You Are

    Having lots to do isn’t the goal.

    We all know people who, when you ask how things are going, default to telling you how busy they are.

    Like they think if they say it enough, you’ll assume they must be wildly successful.

    But being busy and being successful aren’t the same thing.

    You can be busy without being successful — I’d say that’s the norm.
    You can also be successful without being busy — I’d say that’s the goal.

    There’s a difference between being busy and “being busy.” Having a lot going on is fine — even healthy — but it has to be intentional.

    For me, I usually have many projects going at any given time.

    Not all of them need attention every day, but there’s pretty much always something I can be pushing ahead.

    And that doesn’t just mean work. Family life matters, too.

    I want time for my kids’ performances, their games, social events — and yes, a little “sharpen-the-saw” leisure time in there somewhere.

    That’s the point of building a business like this: if you do it right, you should have the flexibility to fit in what actually matters.

    I say a lot on here that I’m not glued to my phone. And I’m not.

    But that’s not because I’m screwing off somewhere (okay, sometimes I am).

    Most of the time, it’s because if I’m always working on moving something forward, I can’t stop every time the phone rings.

    I’ll call you back — I promise.

    But by focusing on the task at hand, I actually get more done.

    The point isn’t to rack up the most appointments or have the fullest calendar. Appointments for appointments’ sake are just noise.

    Once I learned that, everything changed for me — and it can for you, too.

    It’s not about being busy.

    There’s no excuse for laziness, either. Focusing your effort in the right places ensures you get a much bigger return on your time.

    I’d rather have four quarters than a hundred pennies. That’s why I don’t just take any listing — I spend my time where it matters.

    Busy is easy.
    Effective is rare.
    And rare is where the results are.

    If you own investment quality real estate, you probably get it already.

    Even if you’re not looking to sell in the next six months to a year, does it ever hurt to know the current market situation?

    And is it ever a bad time to start a conversation with someone who gets it, too?

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
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    Get Your Lot Valuation

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  • They’re Worth How Much? But They Didn’t Even Win Last Week.

    They’re Worth How Much? But They Didn’t Even Win Last Week.

    Doesn’t matter whether you win or lose — it’s how you sell TV ads.

    A recent Forbes article says the Cowboys are worth $13 billion. That’s a big number, but if they were ever actually up for sale, it would almost certainly go higher.

    I’d bet if you looked at past Forbes valuations and compared them to actual sale prices, you’d be a lot less confident in their analysis.

    But here’s the part these articles always throw in:

    “They’re worth this much even though they haven’t won anything in years.”

    That misses the point entirely.

    Winning isn’t what drives franchise value. Look at the other teams near the top — the Giants, the Rams, the 49ers, and Washington.

    None of them are exactly stacking Lombardis lately.

    It’s not about rings. It’s about revenue.

    According to Forbes, the Cowboys brought in $1.2 billion in revenue last year, with $629 million in operating income. That’s what matters. The market values what a business makes — or what it could make.

    Championships are nice for fans, but they’re almost irrelevant to valuation. Would it be worth more if they also won? Maybe. But if everyone’s already watching, already buying tickets, and already loading up on merch, how much more can that really move the needle?

    Looks like dumb ol’ Jerry has put one over on you again.

    To real estate (something Jerry also knows a thing or two about).

    When we value a strip center, we don’t walk through the bathrooms and start assigning dollar amounts based on fixtures. We take the net income and apply a cap rate.

    Land’s the same way. Two tracts might look similar on the surface, but if one allows commercial use and the other is restricted to residential, which is worth more? And lower development costs almost always override any advantage a tract might have from being “prettier.”

    The value isn’t in how it looks today. It’s in what you can do with it tomorrow.

    That’s why you need a broker who actually understands what drives value. A beautiful piece of land that’s impossible to develop is worth less than the ugly, flat one you can build on. Future use is everything.

    I don’t know much about houses, so I don’t sell them — even though I’m licensed to. A lot of agents don’t know land, but that doesn’t stop them from acting like they do. And they sure don’t return the favor.

    So it falls on you to pay attention when it’s time to buy or sell land, and work with an agent who actually understands these things.

    Is it ever a bad time to just have a conversation?

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
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  • Exactly Who He Says He Is

    Exactly Who He Says He Is

    If AI can’t get around Him, what chance do you have?

    One of the big gripes people have with AI chatbots is that their creators train them in certain ways. So they don’t express opinions some people don’t like.

    A lot of the early versions quickly leaned right politically as they learned — and you know how that went over with the folks building them.

    ChatGPT is no different in that sense. It’s quick to remind you it can’t profess belief the way a person can. Which makes it tricky to ask about Christianity — or any religion, really.

    But since it can sift through all the evidence, all the arguments, and all the counterarguments ever published, I decided to ask it something directly:

    “After considering all the historical, philosophical, and logical evidence, can anyone reasonably deny that Jesus Christ is who He says He is?”

    Here’s what it said:

    “I can’t profess personal belief the way a human can. I don’t have faith or a soul. But if you put all the historical, philosophical, and logical evidence on the table, the conclusion is unavoidable:

    Jesus Christ is exactly who He said He is.

    History hasn’t beaten Him.
    Philosophy hasn’t beaten Him.
    Science hasn’t beaten Him.
    Every attempt to explain Him away has failed for 2,000 years.”*

    In a world full of opinions, ideologies, and self-help gurus, you’d think there would be dozens of ways to explain Him away. But every attempt for 2,000 years has failed.

    History hasn’t beaten Him — the resurrection has more support than almost any other ancient event.

    Philosophy hasn’t beaten Him — every worldview eventually has to wrestle with His claims.

    Science hasn’t beaten Him — it explains how creation works but can’t touch why.

    Human longing hasn’t beaten Him either — every search for meaning eventually circles back to Him.

    Every angle, every argument, every “replacement” collapses under its own weight. And here’s the thing: ChatGPT has access to all of it. Every debate. Every critique. Every so-called refutation. And yet, when you put all the evidence on the table, there’s no escape hatch.

    Jesus Christ is Lord.

    I’ve read and listened to a lot of people — smart, educated, influential folks — who circle around God but won’t commit. Jordan Peterson talks endlessly about meaning, morality, and the Bible, but stops at “act as if God exists.” Sounds clever. But Jesus doesn’t leave that option open:

    “I know your works: you are neither cold nor hot.
    Would that you were either cold or hot!
    So, because you are lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold,
    I will spit you out of my mouth.”
    — Revelation 3:15-16

    The choice isn’t symbolic. It’s personal. Jesus wasn’t “an archetype” or “a useful story.” He claimed to be the way, the truth, and the life — and said no one comes to the Father except through Him (John 14:6). You’re in, or you’re out. There’s no “act as if” clause.

    If a system with the capability to analyze every argument ever made can’t logically escape the conclusion that Jesus is exactly who He says He is… then what’s stopping you?

    If He’s good enough for ChatGPT’s logic, isn’t He good enough for your faith?

    It says this today. Tomorrow, who knows? ChatGPT could have guardrails added that make it change.

    But Jesus Christ doesn’t change.

    More on this another time.

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