Mike Browning

Tag: land value

  • “Rare” Isn’t the Same as “Safe”

    “Rare” Isn’t the Same as “Safe”

    Most elections aren’t worth cheating in.

    You’ve heard the line. Voter fraud is rarer than getting struck by lightning, so why bother with ID?

    I won’t argue with the numbers. Documented in-person voter impersonation is rare.

    But what does that really prove?

    Think about who would actually cheat. Nobody is going to risk prison to move a 60-40 race to 57-43, especially since once someone gets caught, whatever method they used gets shut down. A method like that is worth one good shot, and nobody wastes it on a race that was never in doubt.

    So a fraud rate calculated across all those elections tells you very little about the ones where somebody might actually have a reason to try.

    A race decided by a point or two is a different animal. That’s where a relatively small number of votes can decide everything.

    I’m not saying any particular election was stolen, and I’m not saying it’s happening now. I’m saying “we haven’t found much of it” and “there’s no reason to guard against it” are two different claims. The numbers only speak to the first one.

    I’ve sat at a lot of closing tables, and every one of them started with somebody checking a driver’s license. Nobody in the room thought the seller was a crook. Nobody ever suggested we skip it because the last hundred closings went fine.

    You show ID at the bank, at the airport, and at the pharmacy counter for the same reason. Most people are honest, the check is simple, and the one time it matters, you can’t go back and add it.

    That’s the part people don’t like. A safeguard has to be in place before the close race, not after, when the result is already contested.

    So the next time someone tells you the lock is unnecessary because nobody has tried the door, ask how many of those doors had anything worth taking behind them.

    P.S. I know this one doesn’t tie back to real estate too cleanly. But if you own land or lots, the same logic applies.

    Most landowners aren’t planning to sell today. Things can change fast though, and you’re better off being ahead of it than scrambling later.

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It’s my opinion of what a reasonable buyer might pay, based on what’s actually selling near you, with real prices. No obligation to do anything with it.

    It’s free, and it’s done by someone who thinks about what could go wrong, not just what already happened.

    Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    [Request Your MBR Land Reality Check]

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  • The Wall That Keeps Out Disappointment

    The Wall That Keeps Out Disappointment

    It keeps other things out too.

    Most of us spend a lot of time and go to a lot of effort to prevent bad things from happening to us.

    Some of it is smart. Like wearing your seatbelt. Looking both ways before crossing the street. Requiring your bank to call and verify with you verbally before wiring money to or from your account.

    Common sense, in other words. Low-effort things that can prevent major problems.

    But we tend to overdo it. And overestimate our ability to stop anything bad from ever happening.

    Some people try to build a wall around their lives that will keep problems or disappointment from affecting them.

    And the wall can be surprisingly effective. Most of the time anyway. Today we won’t get into all the things people thought would protect them that turned out not to.

    But the thing to remember is that the wall you build against problems keeps other things out too.

    Like opportunity.

    A lot of people want total certainty before making a move on anything. But you can never have it.

    Or they act like the worst thing that can happen is making a mistake or failing at something. But the only way to never make mistakes is to never do anything. And failing is one of the best ways to learn.

    The idea isn’t to be reckless. It’s to lower the wall enough that some of the good can get in.

    Will that result in more problems than you otherwise would have had?

    Possibly. Probably, even.

    But you’ll probably have more successes too.

    And have more fun.

    P.S. If you own land, you know it’s smart to know where you stand with it. Even if you’re not planning to sell, things change, and sometimes they change fast.

    Better to know ahead of time and not need the information than to be scrambling when you suddenly do.

    It’s also important to remember that deciding to look isn’t the same as deciding to act.

    Not selling is the right move for most people most of the time. But you don’t know what’s right for you if you don’t look.

    So give yourself permission.

    The MBR Land Reality Check gives you a clear-eyed view of what’s going on around your property and helps you understand what it might be worth today. You get real comps, real analysis, and insight from people who handle land for a living.

    And it’s free.

    Check it out here.

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  • If It Sounds Too Good To Be True

    If It Sounds Too Good To Be True

    It probably is. Except when it isn’t.

    It’s happened to most of us.

    You’re in the used car market and see something online that looks like a really great deal. You’re skeptical that it’s just a scam to get your info, but it turns out to be a real person. So you get excited, only to find out it has a salvage title. Or it’s been in three accidents. Or something. The seller wasn’t lying exactly. He just wasn’t volunteering.

    We’ve all heard the saying and mostly believe it. If something sounds too good, be skeptical. Knowing that and acting on it in the moment are two different skills, and the second one is a lot harder than it sounds when you’re the one standing next to something you need and want.

    Nobody falls for the Nigerian prince anymore. We’ve all had that training by now. It’s the smaller version that still gets people. The retirement account with a “guaranteed” return. The stock tip from a brother in law who heard it from a guy at work. The story about a politician you already don’t like, one that fits exactly what you expected to hear about him, so you share it before you check it.

    There’s always somebody out there advertising a screaming deal on rural acreage, half the going rate or less. The honest question isn’t whether you can afford it. It’s why a deal that good needs to be advertised at all.

    Most of the time it’s cheap for a reason you haven’t found yet. Floodplain. An easement running through the middle of it. Something next door nobody wants to look at from their porch. Maybe the listing agent knows. There’s a pretty good chance the neighbor who’s farmed next to it for thirty years does.

    And by the time an obvious screaming deal reaches somebody two counties away with no history in the area, it’s worth asking why somebody closer to it hasn’t already grabbed it.

    There’s a difference between a deal nobody’s found yet and a deal everybody already turned down.

    Every so often, the real thing does show up. An estate that needs to close fast. An out of town agent who priced it off the wrong comps. An owner who’s been sitting on it since 2004 and never bothered updating his number. Those exist. They’re just a lot rarer than the other kind, and the little jump in your pulse feels exactly the same either way. That’s the part that gets people.

    Whether you check first or get excited first is on you.

    That’s why I run a screen through thousands of available tracts looking for the ones priced under what’s around them. And that’s only the first pass.

    Most of what survives it turns out to be fool’s gold once I actually dig into it. Every once in a while, one doesn’t.

    Usually I already know who the right buyer is for it. Depending on the area, the size, the timing, sometimes I don’t, and I end up sitting on something worth a look with nobody in mind for it yet.

    That’s what the Buyer’s Short List is for.

    When something actually clears the screen, I send a short note to a small list of people who asked to see them. No spam, no newsletter, nothing on a schedule.

    They won’t all be a fit for you. And something being on the list doesn’t mean you should buy it.

    It means I’ve looked for the reason it was too good to be true and haven’t found it yet.

    [Add me to the list.]

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  • What Do You Expect For Nothing?

    What Do You Expect For Nothing?

    Sometimes quite a bit.

    Free has a reputation.

    Usually it means automated. Generic. A teaser designed to get your phone number so somebody can call you and start selling.

    So I understand if that’s what you expect when I tell you the MBR Land Reality Check is free.

    It’s not.

    Each one is prepared manually. I look at the property, recent comparable sales, what’s currently happening in the surrounding market, and the things that could affect what a reasonable buyer might actually pay today.

    Then I put it together as a Broker Opinion of Value so you can see the information behind my opinion, not just the number itself.

    Could I charge for that? Probably.

    I’ve had people tell me I’m crazy not to.

    Maybe I will eventually.

    But I don’t today.

    You’re probably not ready to sell. And that’s great.

    But if you look at most of the land on the market, many of those sellers were saying the same thing not long ago.

    Things change. Sometimes quickly.

    Getting a handle on where you stand doesn’t mean you’re going to sell. It’s just being ahead of the game.

    And you’ll get no pressure from me. I only want to work with people who are ready. If I have to talk you into it, it’s not a fit. For either of us.

    Is it a bad idea to have current information?

    It’s still free. For now, anyway.

    Check it out here.

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  • Things Are Headed South

    Things Are Headed South

    And we plan to get there first.

    Yesterday I talked about how things seem to be getting worse and worse in the world, and how people tend to want to put things off until the situation looks a little more stable.

    It’s not just having kids, it goes into things like changing jobs, starting or expanding a business, or doing anything that involves risk (that is, anything at all). But if you wait for perfect conditions to arrive to do something, you’ll likely never do anything at all.

    Most of the time, the “right time” is now.

    If you time it perfectly, great. Most of the time you won’t. But if you learn to succeed when circumstances aren’t ideal, you’ll be that much better positioned when they improve.

    So in the interest of taking our own advice, while everyone is saying things are headed south figuratively, we are heading south literally.

    To Hillsboro.

    Introducing MBR Land Group, our Hill County-based land brokerage operation serving Hill County and the surrounding area.

    My brother Matt lives in Hillsboro and is the guy to talk to if you’re looking to buy or sell lots or land down that way. Or pretty much anything but residential.

    Matt can be reached at matt@browningre.com or by phone at 254.324.6969

    If you own land in the area, you’re probably not looking to sell today. Or maybe ever. But between data centers, wind farms and future growth, things may be starting to look a little different than you expected.

    Things change, often quickly. It’s better to have information and know how things stand before you need it instead of scrambling after the fact.

    The MBR Land Reality Check gives you a clear eyed view of what’s going on in the area around your property and helps you know what it might be worth today. You get real comps, real analysis and insight from people who handle land for a living.

    Not house sellers moonlighting as land agents.

    It’s free. Better yet, there’s no obligation or pressure to list, and you won’t end up in a buzzword filled presentation just because you wanted some basic information.

    Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    Give yourself permission to look!

    Check it out here.

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  • The Gas Price People

    The Gas Price People

    It doesn’t pay to worry about the price of something you have to buy no matter what.

    Since I’m out looking at land all over DFW, I drive more miles than most people do in a month. And I don’t drive a Prius, I drive a pickup. Not one of the giant, jacked-up models, but I’m still not winning any awards for conservation.

    So if anyone should be paying attention to gas prices it should be me. But I don’t. But that doesn’t prevent others from telling me about the latest moves.

    You know the type. They watch the price board every time they pass a station. They’ll drive ten miles out of their way to save three cents a gallon. Burn more gas than the savings they get. They text their spouse: “Buc-ee’s in Melissa is at $3.09 right now.” The gas price conversation comes up at dinner like they’re tracking a stock.

    But think about it. Say prices jump twenty cents a gallon. My truck takes about 26 gallons. That’s five dollars more per fill up. Five bucks. The mental energy some people spend tracking that number, recalculating, stressing, and comparing costs more than five dollars. Probably a lot more.

    As a wise man once said: he who knows the price of everything knows the value of nothing.

    And that’s the real problem. When you’re focused on what something costs, you stop thinking about what it’s worth.

    Landowners do this too.

    Not with gas prices. With phone calls.

    They’ve been sitting on a piece of land, could be a hundred acres, could be forty, and every so often they wonder what it’s worth. What’s been selling nearby. Whether the market shifted. Whether now’s the time or not.

    But they don’t do anything about it.

    They’ve decided that the cost of checking is too high. Not in money. Something worse: the pressure. The pitch. The agent who’s going to spend forty-five minutes making it real estate conversation instead of land conversation, then follow up every two weeks until they finally block the number.

    So they wait. And while they’re waiting, they’re not getting the information they’d need to make a good decision when the time comes.

    That’s the real cost. And it’s not five dollars.

    Here’s what I’d ask you to think about.

    What if you knew ahead of time that the pressure thing wasn’t going to happen? If I promised you the conversation was just going to be information, that I wasn’t going to push, that you reach out and end up with a clearer picture and nothing more, would it still make sense to wait?

    Of course anyone can promise no pressure. But don’t take my word for it, hear it from people who actually got a Land Reality Check:

    “The information was helpful by providing market information. I did not and do not feel pressured to take any action. The information provided serves as a baseline for the market value of the property.”

    — Mary G., Frisco

    “How quickly I received a response that was so full of detailed information that I never would have known to even think about.”

    — Lisa H., McKinney

    “I was amazed at all the info I received. For free.”

    — Barbara K., Denison

    The value of knowing what your land is worth doesn’t go away because you’re not planning to sell today. If anything it goes up, because the people who make good decisions on land almost always understood the market before they needed to.

    The cost you’re worried about? It doesn’t exist here.

    PS- You’re probably not looking to sell today. And that’s great.

    But is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. Sales data, competing listings, development pressure, the factors that affect value that you can’t see from the road.

    No pressure. No drama. Just valuable info to use when you’re ready. If ever.

    Get Yours Here

    PPS-Not ready for that yet? You can sign up below and just read. Land, markets, negotiation. No pitch.

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