Mike Browning

Tag: land valuation

  • It’s Probably Not Time Today

    It’s Probably Not Time Today

    Or maybe it is, but the smart thing to do today is the same.

    From what I’ve seen, the land market around here has been moving mostly sideways for about three years now.

    With acreage it’s hard to do an apples-to-apples comparison because every tract is different. But I’ve seen it with custom home lots, where the exact same lot has sold more than once over the past few years.

    From 2020-2022, rapid appreciation. Since then, basically the same prices, But much less activity overall.

    The usual explanation is that interest rates are higher and that’s slowing down development and investment. Or uncertainty about wars and geopolitics.

    Those are both probably part of it, but I think there’s sort of a musical-chairs aspect to it as well.

    There was a growing subset of land investors who would buy tracts, sell at a profit when new investors came along, buy something else, rinse and repeat.

    Until the new guys stopped showing up.

    Some of them are now trying to sell things they may have overpaid for, and so far they haven’t been willing to bite the bullet.

    Some of that probably needs to work its way through the system before things really start moving again.

    And with agricultural valuation, debt-free land can be relatively inexpensive to carry. So owners who don’t need to sell can, and probably will, wait out the market.

    So it’s probably not time to sell today.

    That doesn’t mean it’s not time to know where you stand.

    Things can change fast, and getting your ducks in a row now pays off. You’re not scrambling at the last minute.

    The MBR Land Reality Check gives you a clear-headed review of where things stand for you today, with actual sold comps and other information that puts you ahead of the game.

    You’re not deciding to sell and there’s no pressure. You’re just giving yourself permission to look.

    You can do that below.

    Of course, you could be someone who needs to sell sooner. Loan coming due, estate issues, you found a better opportunity, or whatever.

    If that’s you, the course of action is the same.

    Get the MBR Land Reality Check and go from there.

    Get it here

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  • What Do You Expect For Nothing?

    What Do You Expect For Nothing?

    Sometimes quite a bit.

    Free has a reputation.

    Usually it means automated. Generic. A teaser designed to get your phone number so somebody can call you and start selling.

    So I understand if that’s what you expect when I tell you the MBR Land Reality Check is free.

    It’s not.

    Each one is prepared manually. I look at the property, recent comparable sales, what’s currently happening in the surrounding market, and the things that could affect what a reasonable buyer might actually pay today.

    Then I put it together as a Broker Opinion of Value so you can see the information behind my opinion, not just the number itself.

    Could I charge for that? Probably.

    I’ve had people tell me I’m crazy not to.

    Maybe I will eventually.

    But I don’t today.

    You’re probably not ready to sell. And that’s great.

    But if you look at most of the land on the market, many of those sellers were saying the same thing not long ago.

    Things change. Sometimes quickly.

    Getting a handle on where you stand doesn’t mean you’re going to sell. It’s just being ahead of the game.

    And you’ll get no pressure from me. I only want to work with people who are ready. If I have to talk you into it, it’s not a fit. For either of us.

    Is it a bad idea to have current information?

    It’s still free. For now, anyway.

    Check it out here.

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  • Ambushed By A Salesman In Real Time

    Ambushed By A Salesman In Real Time

    We both know why you should do certain things. And why you don’t.

    I keep coming back to this one: people put off stuff they already know they should deal with. Not because they’re lazy. Because they’re avoiding a hassle they’re pretty sure is coming.

    Take your land. You’re not looking to sell it today. But knowing what it’s worth, and what’s happening around it, can’t hurt you. You’d have the information sitting there if anything changes. If a neighboring tract comes up for sale, you’re not finding out last. And if it’s a good deal, you might be ready to move on it first.

    So why do most people pass when someone offers them free information?

    Mostly because they’ve been burned before.

    Mention you’re the slightest bit curious what your property’s worth and your mind jumps straight to a timeshare pitch. Numbers too good to be true. A guy who won’t take no for an answer.

    You ask one question. The phone starts ringing. And doesn’t stop.

    So you let it go. Not worth the hassle.

    That happened to me last week. My truck’s had a couple of recalls sitting open for a while (nothing major), and I’d been putting it off because I didn’t want to spend an afternoon at a dealership. A card came in the mail with a QR code, said I could schedule online. Figured I’d try it. The site barely worked, so I gave up after a few minutes.

    Except it worked fine, for what it was actually built to do.

    Within minutes my phone rang. Sales manager at the dealership. I let it go to voicemail. He wanted to know what car I was interested in and when I could come in for a test drive.

    A few minutes later, an email. Somehow he’d copied my wife on it too, asking what we were “working a deal” on.

    I asked for service. They tried to close me on a car I never mentioned.

    That’s the move. That’s why people stop raising their hand.

    When you raise yours with me, that’s not what happens. I’ll reach out, sure. Lightly. No pressure, no script.

    You can decide for yourself what that’s worth.

    PS -Most landowners aren’t planning to sell today.

    But things change. The ones who already understand the market tend to handle that better when it does.

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It looks at nearby sales, current listings, development pressure, and the details affecting value that aren’t obvious from the road.

    Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    Get Yours Here

    PPS- If you’re not ready for a Reality Check but enjoy reading about land, markets, and negotiation, you can sign up below and get these posts in your inbox.

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  • You Did All That Without Visiting the Property?

    You Did All That Without Visiting the Property?

    It can’t all be done from afar, but a lot of it can if you know what you’re doing.

    I recently did a Land Reality Check for someone in Alvarado.

    I was up front when I sent it. The property was a couple hours away so I hadn’t actually been there. What he was getting was what I call a desk valuation.

    So I did what I could from here. Pulled comparable sales, looked at competing listings, checked aerial imagery, topography, floodplain data, road access, utility providers, ownership history, and what’s been developing in the surrounding area. Put it together into a pretty good picture of both the property and the market around it.

    When I asked what surprised him most, he said it was how much data I’d been able to pull without ever setting foot on the ground.

    Here’s the thing about land. A lot of what drives value isn’t on the property. It’s around it. Who’s been buying nearby. What they’ve been paying. How much competing inventory is sitting on the market. Where the development pressure is coming from, if any. What infrastructure exists in the corridor.

    None of that requires walking the dirt. It requires understanding what’s happening in the market.

    Of course, site visits matter. There are things you won’t know until you’re there. If we get a little further along and he’s considering selling, I’ll get out there. And it could change things some if there are things I couldn’t see from hours away. A neighbor situation. A drainage problem. A view that the aerials don’t capture. A transmission line sitting just outside the frame. When talking about selling a million dollar property, you need to see it obviously.

    But the assumption that useful information only comes from physically visiting a property, that one’s not right. In a lot of cases, the most important questions get answered before anyone starts the truck.

    Which is part of why the Land Reality Check works for people who aren’t ready to sell. He is thinking about maybe selling, but not immediately. The report was still useful. He wanted to understand what he owned, what the market around it looked like, whether anything had changed.

    That’s a reasonable thing to want to know. And it’s easy to get.

    PS- Most landowners aren’t planning to sell today.

    But things can change quickly. When the time comes, the people who already understand the market tend to make better decisions.

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It looks at nearby sales, current listings, development pressure, and the details affecting value that aren’t obvious from the road.

    Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    Check It Out Here

    PPS- If you’re not ready for a Reality Check but enjoy reading about land, markets, and negotiation, you can sign up below and get these posts in your inbox.

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  • Not Ready to Sell?

    Not Ready to Sell?

    Good. Look Anyway.

    Most landowners aren’t thinking about selling. If anything, they’re thinking they never will.

    They’re at a 1 or a 2 on a 10-point scale. If that.

    But life comes at you fast. Kids going to college. Estate planning conversations you weren’t expecting. Something happening nearby that changes how you feel about owning land there. We’re seeing that a lot right now, data centers, crypto mining operations moving into rural areas. Things that weren’t on anyone’s radar two years ago.

    You can go from “I’m never selling” to “I wish I’d sold last year” faster than you’d think.

    So it’s worth having a baseline. Most people agree with that in theory. Most people still won’t do it.

    Because the last time they asked a question like this, they ended up in a conversation moving faster than they wanted to move. Some agent walking the property, running numbers, and applying list-now pressure that would make a timeshare salesman blush.

    It’s uncomfortable.

    So they wait. Market shifts. They finally get serious two years later with worse information than they would have had if they’d just asked the question when they first had it.

    That’s an expensive way to stay comfortable.

    The landowners who make good decisions are almost never the ones who acted fast. They’re the ones who started paying attention early. Understood the market before they needed to. Weren’t scrambling when the time came.

    That takes time. And it starts before you’re ready.

    Looking doesn’t mean selling. Getting a clear picture of what your land is worth, what’s selling nearby, where development pressure is headed, none of that commits you to anything. It just means you’re not guessing when it matters.

    The only thing that makes early conversations uncomfortable is working with someone who treats them like a sales call.

    That’s not how I operate. If you’re at a 3, I’d rather you know where things stand than stay in the dark because you were worried I’d push you somewhere you weren’t ready to go.

    You control the timeline. That part is on you.

    My job is simply to make sure you have the information when you’re ready to use it.

    PS – Most landowners aren’t planning to sell today.

    But things can change quickly. When the time comes, the people who already understand the market tend to make better decisions.

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It looks at nearby sales, current listings, development pressure, and the details affecting value that aren’t obvious from the road.

    Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    Get Yours Here

    PPS– If you’re not ready for a Reality Check but enjoy reading about land, markets, and negotiation, you can sign up below and get these posts in your inbox.

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  • It Happens To Me Too

    It Happens To Me Too

    There’s a reason I don’t want people to feel cornered. I know how it feels.

    I write on here often that the reason many people don’t check into their land’s value isn’t because they don’t want to know or don’t think it’s smart business to know.

    It’s everything that tends to go with it.

    You just want to know what’s happening, and next thing you know you feel like you’re in a timeshare presentation. Where you feel like the thing isn’t going to end until you say yes, no matter how many times and ways you say no.

    It just happened to me.

    There are a couple commercial real estate platforms that sell subscriptions with various marketing and data tools. I’ve tried both over the years. For what I do, they usually aren’t worth carrying full-time.

    If I need exposure for a particular property, I can just pay to promote that listing specifically and be done with it.

    What they really want to sell is data.

    Buyer information.
    Seller information.
    Mailing lists.
    Contact databases.

    All of that could theoretically be useful to me.

    So they call me. And call. And call.

    I generally ignore the calls. But sometimes one slips through because I think it might actually be somebody calling about property. Like the other day.

    The guy complimented me on the number of listings I have, started talking about how much local buyer and seller information they had access to, and wanted to meet and show me the platform.

    I told him it was probably going to cost more than I was willing to spend.

    To his credit, he at least admitted pricing was somewhat dynamic instead of pretending there was one magic number for everyone. I eventually got a rough range out of him anyway.

    It was more than I wanted to spend. As expected. I told him I didn’t want to waste his time.

    Didn’t matter.

    He still wanted to meet. He suggested a day that was already blocked out on my calendar. When I told him that, he just pushed it back a week.

    Eventually I just said okay because I was tired of the conversation and figured at least I’d get a free cup of coffee out of it.

    Now I’m probably going to have to say no several more times later.

    And eventually I may have to be rude about it.

    I don’t really blame the guy. I understand why companies sell that way. It must work often enough to keep doing it.

    But it also reminds me why so many people avoid talking to agents, salespeople, and brokers in the first place.

    It’s not that people hate buying things. And it’s usually not even that they hate being sold.

    They hate the feeling that they are no longer fully in control of the conversation.

    There’s a difference between staying in touch and trying to corner somebody.

    If you ask me for a valuation, am I going to follow up lightly from time to time?

    Of course. It only makes sense to.

    But am I going to make you feel trapped in a process you can’t comfortably back out of?

    Never.

    You should always feel like you can say no.

    The minute somebody feels like they can’t comfortably say no anymore, the entire interaction changes.

    PS – Most landowners are not planning to sell today.

    But situations change. Sometimes gradually, sometimes all at once. The people who already understand what they own usually make better decisions than the ones trying to figure it out under pressure.

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for.

    It looks at nearby sales, current competition, development activity, utility considerations, and the things affecting value that most people never think about until it matters.

    You don’t have to do anything with the information.

    But is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    Get yours here.

    PPS – If you’re not ready for a Land Reality Check but enjoy reading about land, markets, negotiation, and how this business actually works, you can sign up below and get these posts in your inbox.

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  • You Know You Should. You Also Know Why You Don’t

    You Know You Should. You Also Know Why You Don’t

    It doesn’t have to be the way you’re afraid it will be.

    If you own non-residential real estate, you probably find yourself wondering from time to time what it might sell for today. How it fits into your overall financial picture. What’s going on around it.

    You’d probably also agree it’s a good idea to know.

    Even if you’re not planning to sell. Things change. Sometimes faster than expected. And it’s a lot easier to deal with that when you already have a handle on things, rather than trying to figure it out when you need it yesterday.

    Not to sound like an NRA ad, but it’s better to have the information and not need it than need it and not have it.

    So you know you should.

    But you still don’t.

    And the reason is pretty simple.

    We’ve all had the experience of getting close to needing a new (or newer) car. You start looking online just to get a feel for things, and before you can even look at anything, a chat box pops up.

    It says there’s a real person there. You know there isn’t.

    If you get past that, you’re not getting much real information without giving them your email or phone number. And once you do, you’ve effectively signed up to hear from them for the foreseeable future.

    All the dealerships say they’re different. Experience says they’re mostly the same.

    Sounds a lot like Realtors, if we’re being honest.

    If you ask for an evaluation, you expect it to come in high. High enough to get your attention. Then adjustments get made later once you’re already in the process. And if you don’t move forward right away, you can expect follow-up. A lot of it.

    So while you know it would be smart to stay on top of things, I understand why you don’t.

    Most people don’t.

    But that doesn’t mean you’re wrong to want the information.

    It just means you don’t want everything that usually comes with it.

    So here’s the question.

    What if you could look without getting pulled into a process?

    What if you could get a realistic view of where things stand, without someone trying to turn it into a listing conversation before you’ve even had a chance to think about it?

    That’s the difference.

    Am I going to follow up with you? Of course.

    But it won’t feel like what you’re expecting.

    Allow yourself to take a look while the pressure is off.

    PS- Most landowners are not planning to sell right now.

    But when something changes, the ones who already understand what they’re dealing with tend to handle it better than the ones figuring it out on the fly.

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It looks at actual sales, what’s competing, and the things that quietly push value one way or the other.

    Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    Get Yours Here

    PPS- If you’d rather just keep an eye on how this works, you can sign up below and get these posts in your inbox.

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  • All They Did Was Ask

    All They Did Was Ask

    You check your stock portfolio all the time. Why not your land?

    Sometimes people assume there has to be a big reason to reach out.

    That you have to be ready to sell, or at least thinking about it in a serious way.

    Most of the time, that’s not really the case.

    I sent out a Land Reality Check recently to someone who owns property on Bois d’Arc Reservoir. There wasn’t any urgency, no timeline, and no stated plan to sell. As far as I can tell, it was just curiosity. I don’t even think it had been run by the other partners before requesting it.

    Just wanted to understand what to expect.

    After I sent it over, I got this response:

    “Oh wowww… thanks so much for sending your report. Your personal assistance and professional advice have certainly gone way above and beyond my expectations.”

    That’s great to hear, of course, but it’s not really the point.

    What matters is what happened before all that.

    Just raising a hand and asking the question. Not to sell, and not to list, just to take a look.

    People check what their stocks are worth all the time, probably more often than they need to. But with real estate, they tend to avoid looking at it, even though it’s often a much bigger piece of the picture.

    Part of that is because they assume that once they start looking into it, they’re starting a process. That it leads to conversations, meetings, and decisions they may not be ready to make.

    So they leave it alone.

    Not because doing nothing is clearly the best move, but because they don’t want to deal with what might come with it.

    That’s not how this works, at least not with me.

    You don’t have to make a decision. You don’t have to move forward with anything. And you don’t have to keep talking beyond whatever you’re comfortable with.

    But you can take a step back and understand what you have and how it might fit with the rest of what you’re doing.

    Sometimes, after looking at it, nothing really changes. That’s probably the case more often than not. But sometimes it does, and when it does, you’re making a decision on purpose instead of avoiding one.

    That’s the difference.

    All they did was ask.

    PS – Most landowners aren’t planning to sell today.

    But is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It looks at nearby sales, market trends, development activity, and the types of buyers who might be interested in your property right now.

    No pressure, no obligation, just a clear look.

    Take a look.

    PPS – If you’re not ready for that but like this kind of thinking, you can sign up below and get these in your inbox.

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  • Anchoring (as in Your Top Lip to Your Bottom Lip)

    Anchoring (as in Your Top Lip to Your Bottom Lip)

    There are very few things that can’t be improved with less talking

    People think negotiation is all about talking. Or intimidation. Or acting like it’s a high school debate class.

    It’s not. A lot of the time, the less you talk, the better you do.

    There’s a concept called “anchoring.” It’s when someone sets the first number on the table, and everything after that gets compared to it — whether you like it or not. That number creates a reference point in everyone’s head, even if it makes no sense.

    It can even work when the number isn’t connected to the negotiation at all. If, right before we sit down, someone mentions the Powerball jackpot is over $700 million, that sticks.

    Now, if we’re negotiating a tract worth $5 million, you’re not suddenly walking away with $140 million just because of the Powerball number. But that huge figure can still shape the conversation in subtle ways.

    Even crazier? You don’t need numbers at all.

    If you ask me what something costs, and I say, “It’s expensive,” or, “It’s affordable,” I’ve just anchored the entire discussion.

    You might argue that “expensive” to one person could be “cheap” to someone else, but it doesn’t matter — the frame is set. People fill in the blanks based on their own reference points. And once that frame is in place, you’re steering the deal before it even starts.

    Most people try to anchor with words. They throw out their price first and have a big pitch to back it up, explaining why it’s “fair.” Sometimes, that works. But a lot of the time, silence works better.

    Here’s why: once a number hits the table, human nature takes over. People hate awkward silence, so they start filling it. And the more they talk, the more they second-guess themselves. I’ve watched buyers negotiate against themselves without me saying a single word.

    Example: I was at the table on a land deal a while back. Buyer comes in low. Really low. I didn’t argue. I didn’t counter. I didn’t defend the price. I just sat there.

    Thirty seconds later, he starts explaining why his offer “makes sense.” Another pause. He talks again: “I could probably come up a little if we can work out the terms.” Another pause. Then comes: “Okay, maybe we can do X.”

    I hadn’t said a single thing. We didn’t end up making a deal — we were just too far apart — but it’s still a perfect example of anchoring without saying a word.

    Of course, most negotiation today doesn’t happen at a table. It’s remote and electronic now. But the principle is the same.

    As a broker, I’m required to respond when someone reaches out to me. That doesn’t mean I have to engage.

    So if a lowball offer comes in on your property, I reply as soon as I see it — but all I say is:

    “Thanks, I’ll review with the seller and let you know what he says (if anything).”

    Then I come to you, and I usually recommend silence as the best strategy. You’re always in control, so it’s your call, but if you agree, we sit tight.

    Before long, if they’re serious, they come back to us — either explaining themselves or raising the price.

    People think power in negotiation comes from talking. The truth is, most of the power comes from not saying what the other side wants you to say. The less you explain, the more they have to. And when they’re talking, they’re usually giving up leverage.

    When you’re ready, click below. No pressure, no cost, no obligation.

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
    Get a FREE, no obligation report on what it could sell for today.
    Get Your Lot Valuation

    Own land instead?
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  • But Some of My Best Friends Are Appraisers…

    But Some of My Best Friends Are Appraisers…

    You can’t choose the appraiser, but you can choose who’s at your side. Choose wisely.

    Whenever a bank loan’s involved, you can bet an appraiser is too.

    The bank hires them to make sure they’re not loaning a million bucks against something worth $300K. They’re not there to predict whether the buyer will default, just to confirm the collateral makes sense.

    When it comes to houses, they usually get it right. Plenty of comps, plenty of data. Every house is technically different, but they can pull enough nearby sales to pin down value pretty well.

    Land is a whole different ballgame.

    Finding relevant comps is harder, and the results can get screwy fast. I once had two residential lot deals going at the same time, same area, same price point, roughly $120K each. Two different appraisers. One came back right at $120K. The other came in at $75K.

    One was close. The other wasn’t.

    That buyer kicked in extra cash and closed anyway, but that’s rare. A low appraisal usually blows up the deal for everyone. The appraiser still gets paid the same either way.

    Another listing went under contract at full price. Buyer was paying cash but got an appraisal anyway, just to make the partners feel better.

    You probably know where this is going.

    The appraiser used awful comps. One seven miles away in a rural area, one outdated, and one sitting mostly in floodplain without adjusting for it. The only relevant comp, he adjusted down for no reason anyone could explain. If anything, that comp made us look underpriced.

    His report told my buyers they were overpaying by $500K.

    They walked.

    A few months later, the highway route was announced. That property’s now a future corner. We doubled the price, and we’ll get it.

    That appraiser’s “discount” cost those buyers seven figures in future value.

    To be fair, most appraisers just don’t have enough experience with land. They’re used to houses. Land’s a different animal.

    But you know what wrecks just as many deals? Agents out of their depth.

    Most agents focus on houses. Nothing wrong with that, unless they list land without knowing what they’re doing. Overprice it and the property sits forever. Underprice it and you leave money on the table. Miss a key issue and you get expensive surprises later.

    We all have the same real estate license. That doesn’t make every agent qualified for every deal.

    If you were leasing retail space, would you hire your cousin Karen who’s never read a lease? Even if she asks. And she’ll understand why you don’t.

    So why list land with someone who doesn’t specialize in it? She will understand why you don’t there also.

    Does it make sense to hire people who aren’t experts in a specialized field?

    Does it make sense to fly blind when there’s someone offering a free analysis of your property?

    Even if you aren’t considering selling today, does it hurt to know what you might be sitting on?

    Ready for me to shut up?

    Click below.

    Got a lot you might want to sell?
    Get a FREE, no obligation report on what it could sell for today.
    Get Your Lot Valuation

    Own land instead?
    Get a report for that here:
    Get Your Land Value

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