Tag: uncertainty

  • The Wall That Keeps Out Disappointment

    The Wall That Keeps Out Disappointment

    Most of us spend a lot of time and go to a lot of effort to prevent bad things from happening to us.

    Some of it is smart. Like wearing your seatbelt. Looking both ways before crossing the street. Requiring your bank to call and verify with you verbally before wiring money to or from your account.

    Common sense, in other words. Low-effort things that can prevent major problems.

    But we tend to overdo it. And overestimate our ability to stop anything bad from ever happening.

    Some people try to build a wall around their lives that will keep problems or disappointment from affecting them.

    And the wall can be surprisingly effective. Most of the time anyway. Today we won’t get into all the things people thought would protect them that turned out not to.

    But the thing to remember is that the wall you build against problems keeps other things out too.

    Like opportunity.

    A lot of people want total certainty before making a move on anything. But you can never have it.

    Or they act like the worst thing that can happen is making a mistake or failing at something. But the only way to never make mistakes is to never do anything. And failing is one of the best ways to learn.

    The idea isn’t to be reckless. It’s to lower the wall enough that some of the good can get in.

    Will that result in more problems than you otherwise would have had?

    Possibly. Probably, even.

    But you’ll probably have more successes too.

    And have more fun.

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  • The Sun Is Probably Coming Up Tomorrow

    The Sun Is Probably Coming Up Tomorrow

    Most people wake up these days and, they already know the world is ending before they’ve had their first cup of coffee.

    Used to be you’d flip on the morning news. Maybe Good Morning America. You’d hear some bad news, sure, but then there’d be a segment on a dog that learned to skateboard, or some heartwarming story about a kid raising money for his neighbor. You’d get the weather. Somebody would laugh too loud at something that wasn’t that funny.

    Now people roll over, grab the phone, and start scrolling. And the algorithm figured out a long time ago that outrage keeps you looking longer than a skateboarding dog does. So that’s what it feeds you, nonstop, before you’ve put your feet on the floor.

    Right now it’s the war that was going to end but now it isn’t (oh wait, yes it is, never mind it’s not). Gas is either already too high or about to get worse, depending on which story you read first. Or we’re living in a dystopian nightmare. It’s exhausting, it’ll ruin your morning or your whole day before it starts if you let it.

    But it’s always been this way, just maybe not quite as much in our faces.

    Just a few years ago we were all going to die. A sizable number of serious people were saying civilization was a few days away from coming apart. We’re still here.

    Before that, a particular election was going to send everything straight into the toilet. Whichever one you’re thinking of, someone said that about it. They all came and went and things are moving along. Most people would never even notice a difference if they weren’t told about it.

    Before that, the housing market had crashed and the same people who swore the crash wasn’t coming turned around and swore it would never recover. It recovered so much that now those same people say nobody can afford a house.

    Before that, terrorists were going to get us all. Hasn’t happened yet.

    Before that, the oceans were going to swallow everything if we didn’t figure out how to control the temperature of the sun. Still waiting on that one too, Al.

    Before that, nuclear holocaust by 1985. Wrong again.

    Before that, economic malaise was all we had to look forward to. Until things started growing so fast the 80s were known as the decade of greed.

    Eventually something is going to get us. That’s just the nature of things.

    But until then, you’ve got a life to live. And a morning to get through. If you spend it marinating in whatever disaster the algorithm decided you should be upset about today, you’ll make worse decisions, be harder to be around, and see problems everywhere, including in places that are actually fine.

    Here’s a pretty decent rule of thumb: if someone says it’s different this time or we will never recover from (insert problem here), they probably aren’t worth listening to.

    There will always be a reason to run and hide, if you just look for one.

    But the sun’s probably coming up tomorrow. Plan accordingly.

    PPS- If you’re not ready for a Reality Check but enjoy reading about land, markets, and how to think about both, you can sign up below and get these posts in your inbox.

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