Mike Browning

Tag: Texas Development

  • Nobody Knows the Future (But That Doesn’t Stop Them from Pretending)

    Nobody Knows the Future (But That Doesn’t Stop Them from Pretending)

    Forecasts are fine—just don’t build your life around them.

    As humans, we crave certainty. It makes us feel better to look at the world, make some assumptions, and act like we know what’s coming next.

    The problem? We almost never do.

    I ran across a 1999 Texas Water Development Board report recently. It had population projections for 2030 that are… slightly off.

    Here’s a few local gems, compared with actual 2025 estimates:

    CityProjected 2030 Pop.Actual 2025 Est.% Error
    McKinney65,912226,000+243%
    Frisco45,450235,000+417%
    Prosper2,72646,000+1,587%
    Melissa1,26926,000+1,949%
    Celina4,06061,000+1,402%

    **I didn’t include Princeton on the list, but the projections showed it to lose population between 1999-2030.

    (Today it’s only the fastest growing city in the US)

    Good thing nobody was betting real money on those guesses.

    If cities had actually planned their water capacity around those projections, we’d be in trouble.

    Thankfully, most local leaders had the sense to look around and see what was actually happening on the ground.

    Not everyone, of course. Some folks still play politics with growth—voting one way to serve water and another way on annexation just to score a few points online.

    It doesn’t stop the growth, but it does make them feel clever. And look good to their supporters.

    Anyway. The bigger point is this:

    You can plan all you want, but nobody really knows the future.

    If you ask me what your land or lot will be worth in five years, I’ll tell you the truth—I don’t know.

    What I can tell you is what’s happening right now, and what similar properties have actually sold for.

    That’s what matters when you’re making decisions today.

    So if someone promises to tell you exactly what something will be worth later—run. They’re either lying or don’t understand reality.

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    PS- Want to know what your property’s worth today? I’ll tell you what I know. No charge, no pressure, no fortune telling.

    And no virtue signaling.

    Is it ever a bad time to begin a conversation with an expert who also knows what he doesn’t know?

    Click below:

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  • A $3.5M Deal That Was Never Meant to Happen

    A $3.5M Deal That Was Never Meant to Happen

    When it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

    Yesterday I was talking about how I need to be able to spot a deal instantly, because the kind of deal I can sell with one phone call doesn’t stick around.

    And how I might only see a few of those in a year, even though I’m looking almost every day. Maybe a 1% chance on any given day, probably less.

    So guess what happened yesterday?

    Right after I finished writing about how rare those are, I jumped into my usual search and came across something that looked promising. Asking price: $3.5M.

    It’s not an area I work in much, near Texas Motor Speedway. Tons of development happening out there. And a quick check showed that several major players already own the land close by.

    That alone tells you a lot. When I say decades of experience pay off, this is what I mean. Not only can what and where tell you something, but who is a big factor too.

    Now, I wasn’t 100% sure it was a deal. But it was close enough to rattle a few cages. That’s another piece of experience: knowing when to share something and when to hold back. You don’t want to be the boy who cried wolf, but you also don’t want to miss something real.

    I’ve done both. It stings more when you don’t share and that person ends up buying it through someone else.

    So I reached out to the listing broker with basic questions about utilities, zoning, etc., and then contacted a client who could handle a deal that size.

    Then I waited.

    Later that evening, I got a mass email from the broker. Turns out their office made a mistake. The asking price wasn’t $3.5M—it was $4.9M. If anyone wanted to update their offers, now’s the time.

    Apparently, they got multiple contracts within hours. Meaning my gut was right: at $3.5M, it was a deal.

    At $4.9M? Not so much.

    So I’ll keep looking.

    And as always—if you ever need someone who can spot these things before the crowd, you know how to reach me.

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