Tag: Risk Management

  • Quit Making it Where You’re Almost Certain to Lose

    Quit Making it Where You’re Almost Certain to Lose

    Trying to remove every downside usually creates a bigger one.

    People spend half their lives trying to “not lose” in the future. And in the process, they lose right now.

    Extended warranties are the perfect example.

    You just agreed to buy a car or a laptop or a $2,000 TV. Or whatever. The deal is done.

    Then instantly they pivot to telling you how fragile it all is.

    “Repairs are expensive.”
    “These electronics just don’t last like they used to.”
    “Most people choose the protection plan.”
    And of course:
    “It’s a no-brainer.”

    A no-brainer for them.

    Warranties are one of the biggest profit centers in the auto business and high ticket retail. They don’t make much on the actual sale.

    But that finance office?

    That’s where the margins live.

    They train those people to sell fear with a smile, and a few of them are incredible at it.

    When I bought my wife’s car, the finance director put on a master class. She made it sound like only an idiot would say no. Then she started low-key shaming me when I held firm.

    Told me I was the first person who had ever turned her down — obvious nonsense — so I said that makes me either the smartest person she’s met or the dumbest.

    She doubled down, telling me all the ways I’d suffer when the car broke.

    I finally grabbed her business card and told her if she ended up being right, I’d call and congratulate her.

    My wife loved that.

    The whole pitch is built on loss aversion.

    In our minds, the pain of losing is about twice as strong as the pleasure of gaining. So people pay a big premium today to avoid a possible big bill tomorrow.

    Never mind that the warranty may not even cover everything later.

    And that’s assuming they don’t try to wriggle out of it altogether.

    (Furniture stores, by the way, are experts at this. Don’t ask how I know.)

    People view each warranty as a one-off decision. But you have to look at this over a lifetime.

    If you refuse every extended warranty you’re ever offered, yes — at some point you’ll pay full price for a repair or a replacement. But stack up all the money you saved by saying no a hundred times before that?

    You’re way ahead.

    You can’t eliminate risk.

    Not in purchases.
    Not in life.
    Not in business.

    All you can do is decide whether the downside is known and acceptable. If it is, then buying “insurance” for every small thing doesn’t make sense.

    Real estate isn’t much different.

    You make the best decision with the information you have, and you get expert help so you aren’t flying blind.

    (Hello)

    Trying to wait for perfect certainty is just another version of the extended warranty pitch — paying a premium today to avoid a maybe tomorrow.

    If you’re thinking about selling land, your job isn’t to eliminate all risk.

    It’s to understand it, weigh it, and make the smartest call you can.

    PS- You’re probably not ready to buy or sell real estate today. But I’ve found the best time to start preparing for any big decision is well before you’re actually ready to do anything.

    I offer a free, no obligation opinion of value on any non-residential property. Including real comps, utility and access info, market trends, and any nearby sales activity that matters.

    It’s a concise report that gives you a basic idea where you stand today, and helps you get your head around what you might be looking at when it is time to move.

    By looking at the info today and discussing it with a trusted professional, you can make a clear headed decision and not be talked into something not in your interests. And you can worry less.

    Is it a crazy idea to want less anxiety in your life?

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  • You Don’t Know Who’s Swimming Naked Until the Tide Goes Out

    You Don’t Know Who’s Swimming Naked Until the Tide Goes Out

    (This one needs a big fat disclaimer: I’m not a CPA, licensed securities professional, an attorney, or anything like that. I’m a real estate broker. I shoot straight, but none of this is legal or financial advice. You should consult the relevant professionals in those fields should you have questions. All of this is for informational purposes only.)

    Real estate cycles run longer than stock market cycles.

    That’s because real estate isn’t liquid.

    When stocks fall, you can still sell. There’s always new retirement money flowing in, keeping things moving.

    (yes, it’s by design that the least sophisticated investors basically have no other option but to sink their 401k money into the stock market. He who has ears to hear, let him hear.)

    But in real estate, when the market turns, the buyers disappear.

    And that’s when you find out who was actually making money because they were good — and who was just making money because prices were going up.

    We’ve been in an expansion phase for a long time.

    For most people in the business today, the only market they’ve ever known is a rising one.

    That creates a specific kind of confidence: The kind that comes from never being tested.

    The people who look the smartest in an up-market aren’t usually the best operators.

    They’re the ones taking the most risk.

    Leveraged to the hilt. Borrowing against deals to buy more deals. Investors nodding along because so far everything has worked.

    And yes — some promoters are already doing things their investors don’t know about.

    (I don’t know about anything specific so nobody call their lawyers…it just happens all the time)

    When everything goes up, nobody asks questions.

    When everything stops going up, everyone asks questions at once.

    That’s when the tide goes out.

    And then you’ll hear the stories:

    • “We didn’t know.”
    • “Nobody could have seen it coming.”
    • “We trusted the wrong guy.”

    And some of those investors really will lose everything. Because they either didn’t ask enough questions, or didn’t want to hear the answers.

    Warren Buffett said:

    “You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.”

    He’s right.

    But the part people forget is this:

    The down is always faster than the up.

    So pay attention to who you’re trusting — not just what the deal looks like.

    Because a good deal with the wrong manager is a bad deal. And if you aren’t sure they’re trustworthy?

    Assume they aren’t.

    There are plenty of good deals out there.

    Make sure you’re in one of those.

    PS: I offer free value analysis on any land or lot property (not houses).

    You’re probably not looking to sell today —

    but the time to prepare is before you need to.

    There’s no charge, and there’s no downside to having current market info.

    Is it ever a bad idea to start getting to know honest people who deal in what you already own?

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