Mike Browning

Tag: Property Values

  • Everyone But Me

    Everyone But Me

    As it turns out, not everyone.

    I never got into gaming.

    But it felt like everybody else had a console, a headset, and a whole second life happening on a screen I wasn’t looking at. My kids, their friends, plenty of adults…even some older than me. So I made an assumption and never questioned it.

    If everybody’s playing, somebody must be making a fortune.

    Then I read something about Microsoft and the Xbox recently.

    They have spent billions building games, buying studios, and chasing market share, only to discover that popularity and profitability aren’t the same thing. From the outside it looked like an easy business. From the inside it was far more complicated.

    It’s a good reminder that what “everybody knows” is often just the part everyone can see.

    Land works the same way.

    If you own property anywhere near the DFW growth path, you’ve probably heard the stories.

    A neighbor sold for three times what he paid. Somebody got bought out for a data center. A family down the road suddenly became millionaires.

    Those stories spread fast. Before long, they become what “everyone knows.”

    Sometimes they’re even true.

    The problem is that they usually don’t tell you much about your property.

    Land values can change from one road to the next. Sometimes from one side of the fence to the other. Access, utilities, topography, floodplain, buyer demand, surrounding uses, and dozens of other factors can push one tract well above or well below the one everyone keeps talking about.

    That’s why I think there’s a difference between hearing what land is worth and knowing what your land is worth.

    Most people don’t need that answer today. You’re probably not considering selling. You may even plan to never sell.

    But when life changes, a health issue, an estate, a buyer calling unexpectedly, or a family decision, that’s a terrible time to discover you’ve been relying on local folklore instead of current market information.

    P.S.– Most landowners who request an MBR Land Reality Check aren’t planning to sell.

    They simply want to know where they stand before they ever need the answer.

    The report includes recent comparable sales, current market activity, and my opinion of what a reasonable buyer might pay today, without any obligation to sell.

    Is it a bad idea to know?

    Get It Here

    P.P.S.– If you’re not interested in a Land Reality Check but enjoy reading about land, markets, and North Texas growth, you can subscribe to my occasional emails below.

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  • Ambushed By A Salesman In Real Time

    Ambushed By A Salesman In Real Time

    We both know why you should do certain things. And why you don’t.

    I keep coming back to this one: people put off stuff they already know they should deal with. Not because they’re lazy. Because they’re avoiding a hassle they’re pretty sure is coming.

    Take your land. You’re not looking to sell it today. But knowing what it’s worth, and what’s happening around it, can’t hurt you. You’d have the information sitting there if anything changes. If a neighboring tract comes up for sale, you’re not finding out last. And if it’s a good deal, you might be ready to move on it first.

    So why do most people pass when someone offers them free information?

    Mostly because they’ve been burned before.

    Mention you’re the slightest bit curious what your property’s worth and your mind jumps straight to a timeshare pitch. Numbers too good to be true. A guy who won’t take no for an answer.

    You ask one question. The phone starts ringing. And doesn’t stop.

    So you let it go. Not worth the hassle.

    That happened to me last week. My truck’s had a couple of recalls sitting open for a while (nothing major), and I’d been putting it off because I didn’t want to spend an afternoon at a dealership. A card came in the mail with a QR code, said I could schedule online. Figured I’d try it. The site barely worked, so I gave up after a few minutes.

    Except it worked fine, for what it was actually built to do.

    Within minutes my phone rang. Sales manager at the dealership. I let it go to voicemail. He wanted to know what car I was interested in and when I could come in for a test drive.

    A few minutes later, an email. Somehow he’d copied my wife on it too, asking what we were “working a deal” on.

    I asked for service. They tried to close me on a car I never mentioned.

    That’s the move. That’s why people stop raising their hand.

    When you raise yours with me, that’s not what happens. I’ll reach out, sure. Lightly. No pressure, no script.

    You can decide for yourself what that’s worth.

    PS -Most landowners aren’t planning to sell today.

    But things change. The ones who already understand the market tend to handle that better when it does.

    That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It looks at nearby sales, current listings, development pressure, and the details affecting value that aren’t obvious from the road.

    Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?

    Get Yours Here

    PPS- If you’re not ready for a Reality Check but enjoy reading about land, markets, and negotiation, you can sign up below and get these posts in your inbox.

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  • Sometimes Things Go Sideways On You

    Sometimes Things Go Sideways On You

    You can never say for sure which way it will go. Or how fast.

    When people ask me for valuation help, or are thinking about selling, one of the things they often want to know is how much the property is going to be worth in the future.

    My answer is always the same. I don’t know, and neither does anyone else.

    Now historically, land and lot values around here have generally gone up over time. As long as North Texas keeps growing, people keep moving here, and the economy stays relatively strong, there’s a decent chance that continues over the long run.

    But there’s no way to know how fast.

    Or whether it goes up at all over any particular stretch of time.

    Sometimes things go sideways on you.

    Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, land values ran up very quickly during the savings and loan era. A few years later, some of those same properties sold out of receivership for less than the commission paid on the earlier sale.

    A few years before that, acreage in southwest Sherman was trading around $20,000 to $25,000 per acre because people thought a GM plant was coming.

    The plant ended up going to Tennessee.

    I worked on a deal in that same area years later at exactly $6,500 per acre.

    Then there were the lot markets around 2006 to 2008.

    I saw subdivision custom home lots in Collin County selling for over $75,000 during that runup. A few years later after the financial crisis, some of those same lots were changing hands around $20,000.

    In 2020, many people thought the lot market was going to freeze up completely.

    Instead, it got hotter than anything I’ve personally ever seen. In some areas values doubled between roughly 2020 and 2023.

    Since then? Not so much.

    Here are the prices on a lot I have seen trade three separate times:

    October 2023 — $310,000
    May 2024 — $330,000
    May 2026 — $315,000

    Pretty flat.

    That doesn’t mean the market is collapsing. And it doesn’t mean land is bad.

    It just means markets move in cycles, and people have a tendency to mistake temporary conditions for permanent ones.

    So what’s the takeaway?

    A couple things.

    First, you’re usually better off making decisions based on what makes sense today rather than based on what you paid, what you hope happens, or what somebody confidently predicts the property will be worth years from now.

    Second, if somebody tells you with certainty what your property is going to be worth in the future, they’re probably giving you more certainty than the market actually allows.

    That’s not how this works.

    Even if you’re not planning to sell, there’s still value in understanding where things actually stand today.

    You don’t have to do anything with the information.

    But things change. Sometimes slowly, sometimes fast.

    And it’s usually better to already know what you’re dealing with instead of trying to figure it out under pressure later on.

    PS- Even if you’re not considering selling today, is it a bad idea to have a handle on what you’ve got?

    That’s where the MBR Land Reality Check comes in.

    It’s a free, no obligation look at what your property might sell for today, based on what buyers are actually doing today. Real comps with real prices.

    You don’t have to sell, but you should at least allow yourself to look.

    Take a look here.

    PPS- If you’re not ready for a Reality Check but would like to follow along, enter your info below to get these in your inbox.

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