Forecasts are fine—just don’t build your life around them.
As humans, we crave certainty. It makes us feel better to look at the world, make some assumptions, and act like we know what’s coming next.
The problem? We almost never do.
I ran across a 1999 Texas Water Development Board report recently. It had population projections for 2030 that are… slightly off.
Here’s a few local gems, compared with actual 2025 estimates:
| City | Projected 2030 Pop. | Actual 2025 Est. | % Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKinney | 65,912 | 226,000 | +243% |
| Frisco | 45,450 | 235,000 | +417% |
| Prosper | 2,726 | 46,000 | +1,587% |
| Melissa | 1,269 | 26,000 | +1,949% |
| Celina | 4,060 | 61,000 | +1,402% |
**I didn’t include Princeton on the list, but the projections showed it to lose population between 1999-2030.
(Today it’s only the fastest growing city in the US)
Good thing nobody was betting real money on those guesses.
If cities had actually planned their water capacity around those projections, we’d be in trouble.
Thankfully, most local leaders had the sense to look around and see what was actually happening on the ground.
Not everyone, of course. Some folks still play politics with growth—voting one way to serve water and another way on annexation just to score a few points online.
It doesn’t stop the growth, but it does make them feel clever. And look good to their supporters.
Anyway. The bigger point is this:
You can plan all you want, but nobody really knows the future.
If you ask me what your land or lot will be worth in five years, I’ll tell you the truth—I don’t know.
What I can tell you is what’s happening right now, and what similar properties have actually sold for.
That’s what matters when you’re making decisions today.
So if someone promises to tell you exactly what something will be worth later—run. They’re either lying or don’t understand reality.
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PS- Want to know what your property’s worth today? I’ll tell you what I know. No charge, no pressure, no fortune telling.
And no virtue signaling.
Is it ever a bad time to begin a conversation with an expert who also knows what he doesn’t know?
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