If you’re trying to convince, you’re already losing.
Awhile back, one of my clients had a tract under contract he planned to develop. During due diligence, he realized the timing wasn’t right.
We tried to get a price reduction to reflect the longer hold time but failed (so far).
So he dropped it.
It cost me a commission in the short run, but it was the right call. And long term, that’s better for me too. If my clients make bad deals, they can’t come back for more.
When he backed out, he gave me a long list of reasons to send the seller in hopes of getting a price cut:
- High construction loan rates
- High mortgage rates slowing the housing market
- Oversupply of lots
- Overestimated job growth
- Utility capacity issues
All true. All reasonable. But also too much. I told him it was a bad idea, but he wanted to send it — and at the end of the day, it’s my job to do what you want.
Nassim Taleb put it well in Antifragile: if you need more than one reason to do something, you’re trying to convince yourself. One solid reason should be enough. The more you pile on, the weaker your case sounds.
My client wasn’t trying to convince himself — he was trying to convince the seller — but I still think the long list worked against us. Instead of being persuasive, it diluted the point.
We would have been better off keeping it simple:
“We think this is a 7–10 year play, not immediate. We’re still interested, but at a lower price. If you’re not ready, we understand. Call us when you are.”
Would that have changed the seller’s mind? Maybe not. But the odds would’ve been better.
It’s the same as with anchoring in negotiation:
Fewer words hit harder. “It’s too expensive” carries more weight than a 10-point memo. People fill in their own reasons — and their reasons are always more powerful than yours.
The lesson: you only need one good reason to act. More than that, and you’re either overselling… or talking yourself into something you shouldn’t.
And speaking of one good reason — do you need more than “it’s a smart idea” to want the most current market info?
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