Most elections aren’t worth cheating in.
You’ve heard the line. Voter fraud is rarer than getting struck by lightning, so why bother with ID?
I won’t argue with the numbers. Documented in-person voter impersonation is rare.
But what does that really prove?
Think about who would actually cheat. Nobody is going to risk prison to move a 60-40 race to 57-43, especially since once someone gets caught, whatever method they used gets shut down. A method like that is worth one good shot, and nobody wastes it on a race that was never in doubt.
So a fraud rate calculated across all those elections tells you very little about the ones where somebody might actually have a reason to try.
A race decided by a point or two is a different animal. That’s where a relatively small number of votes can decide everything.
I’m not saying any particular election was stolen, and I’m not saying it’s happening now. I’m saying “we haven’t found much of it” and “there’s no reason to guard against it” are two different claims. The numbers only speak to the first one.
I’ve sat at a lot of closing tables, and every one of them started with somebody checking a driver’s license. Nobody in the room thought the seller was a crook. Nobody ever suggested we skip it because the last hundred closings went fine.
You show ID at the bank, at the airport, and at the pharmacy counter for the same reason. Most people are honest, the check is simple, and the one time it matters, you can’t go back and add it.
That’s the part people don’t like. A safeguard has to be in place before the close race, not after, when the result is already contested.
So the next time someone tells you the lock is unnecessary because nobody has tried the door, ask how many of those doors had anything worth taking behind them.
P.S. I know this one doesn’t tie back to real estate too cleanly. But if you own land or lots, the same logic applies.
Most landowners aren’t planning to sell today. Things can change fast though, and you’re better off being ahead of it than scrambling later.
That’s what the MBR Land Reality Check is for. It’s my opinion of what a reasonable buyer might pay, based on what’s actually selling near you, with real prices. No obligation to do anything with it.
It’s free, and it’s done by someone who thinks about what could go wrong, not just what already happened.
Is it a bad idea to know where things stand?